LEE JANZEN liked the odds. "If I were playing the roulette tables in Las Vegas and black, hadn't come up in eight attempts, I think the chances would be very good of it happening the ninth time," he said.
It was his way of suggesting, that there has to be an excellent chance of Royal Lytham producing its first American professional winner of the British Open this week.
And to mix gambling metaphors, the 1993 US Open champion has an ace in the hole: Dave Musgrove. Irish enthusiasts will remember him as the caddie who guided Sandy Lyle to victory in a head to head battle with Christy O'Connor Jnr for the title at Royal St George's in 1985.
In the context of this week's activities, however, there is greater relevance in the fact that he will be cad dying in his sixth Lytham Open. Musgrove's experience here goes back to the victory by Bob Charles in 1963, when he caddied for Yorkshire's Brian Hutchinson.
When Tony Jacklin won in 1969, he worked for another Yorkshireman, Lionel Platts. Then, in 1994, which was Gary Player's year, his employer was Roberto de Vicenzo, the champion at Hoylake seven years previously. But when the Open was last staged at Lytham, in 1988, he was firmly established as Lyle's man, having worked with him in a US Masters triumph earlier that year.
The thing that interested Janzen most about Musgrove's Open pedigree, however, was the 1979 Open at Lytham. "You know he worked for Seve then" said the American, by way of suggesting that much picking of brains would have to be done between now and tee off time tomorrow on that particular episode.
"There are a helluva lot of bunkers out there and I don't see how a player can avoid all of them over 72 holes," said Musgrove. "Apart from those guarding the fairways, Seve was in 15 greenside bunkers and he got up and down from 14 of them. And it's no coincidence that Player happens to one of the finest bunker players in the history of the game. That was the key in 1974 and it remains an important factor this week."
There are 191 bunkers protecting this wonderfully demanding links from the best that modern skill and technology have to offer. One of them deprived Christy O'Connor Snr of a play off for the title with Peter Thomson and Dave Thomas in 1958, when the then Killarney professional drove into a left fairway trap on the fateful 72nd.
As it happens, O'Connor is still joint holder of the course record, having shot a seven under par 65 in the second round in 1969 when he went on to finish fifth behind Jacklin. And those who would lament his frailty with the blade should note that the round contained a stunning homeward journey of 32, in which O'Connor had only 10 putts.
From vivid memories of 1979 - and a few viewings last week of a video of 1988 - Ballesteros has no doubts about the key to his victories here. "The short game," he said. "The greens here are small, and chipping and putting become very important. That's the reason I won those two titles."
He went on: "I watch the film to inspire myself. I'm very proud of what I've done and I would like my boys (six year old Baldomero and four year old Miguel) to see me win again." Then he added wistfully: "My boys have never seen me win a major."
Meanwhile, Janzen was surprised that all of his professional countrymen had failed here: the 4926 Lytham winner, Bobby Jones, is excluded from such considerations given his status as, a career amateur. "From what I've seen of the course, it demands' straight driving and Americans are considered to be good at that," he said.
It would be wrong, of course, to suggest that an American professional has never won at Lytham. Gene Sarazen did, but it wasn't the Open.
During a chat I had with him a few years ago, I asked if he had known the great Harry Vardon. He seemed slightly miffed that I should have been unaware of such details. "Of course I knew Vardon - I played against him," he replied. "When I went to Britain in 1923, there were four or five Americans practising at Troon, and they said: `C'mon kid, let's go to Lytham and St Annes.' But I replied that I had come to win the Open and I was staying in Troon.
"So, (Walter) Hagen and (Johnny) Farrell and a few others went to Lytham. And when they got there, they started calling me up on the phone and calling me all sorts of names. They got me so mad that when I hung up I said to the hotel porter, `How do I get to Lytham and St Annes?' He said I had to take an overnight train to Liverpool and drive from there. So he booked my ticket.
"Off I headed for Lytham and when I got there I had a shower practised and was ready for the tournament. It was the North of England Professional Championship, arranged for the week prior to the Open, and when I'm called to the first tee, who am I playing with only Vardon. Geez I thought, this is really somethin'.
"Anyway, Vardon hits a beautiful baffy shot onto the first green (par three), about 10 feet from the hole. It's blowin' hard and I take an iron and I try to steer it on the wind but it never moved and finishes in the bunker. So I says to Vardon, `What sort of winds do you have over here?' And he replies: `The way you hit em son, they'll never move'." But Sarazen went on to win the tournament by two strokes.
In considering his employer's chances this week, Musgrove expects the wind to be a crucial factor. "He can handle wind all right, but not if it gets really rough," said the caddie of the Minnesota born player, who was tied eighth in the Western Open earlier this month, 10 strokes behind Steve Stricker.
This will be Janzen's fifth British Open appearance, and, of the courses he has played on the rota, he rates Lytham as the most difficult. "I thought Royal St George's was tough, but this one's a lot more demanding," he said.
He finished in a share of 39th place on his debut at Muirfield in 1992 and returned for the staging at Royal St George's the following year, as the US Open champion at Baltusrol. After sharing 22nd place at Sandwich, he was tied 35th at Turnberry and tied 24th at St Andrews last year.
"I love the challenge," he said. "Maybe this is the time to give it a decent run."
