THE questions about the coming year in the Irish radio world have that wearying look of deja vu about them. Can a new national station survive? In what circumstances is local radio economic? Will the State crack down oil pirate broadcasters? Can RTE shift its malaise?

But while these same questions might have been asked at the start of the decade, the answers may well have changed. Radio Ireland, in particular, with its astute chief executive Dan Collins, should not go the bay of Century before it: RTE Radio 1's grip on the adult market has been loosened by the legit local stations, in a way that the pirates of the 1980s could never do.

There is no obvious reason why listeners who already spin the dial between the RTE frequencies and those of two or three competent local stations won't let it rest a while at a new home. So long as Radio Ireland avoids the transmission troubles of its predecessor, it should be able to tick over, at the very least.

Which is more bad news for RTE, a broadcaster that has got to learn to live in a marketplace where "public service" is a minority ethos, where it can no longer count on consistently touching base with all its citizen consumers. Changes in broadcasting and receiving technology will only accelerate this development.

This process of de centring is not always reflected in radio columns that are based in Dublin, which is poorly served by local radio (while pretty well covered by RTE). It means that our preoccupation with the doings of Gay, Pat, Marian and Gerry is becoming obsolete, and it means there will never be another programme that will help Ireland imagine itself to the extent that the Gay Byrne Show did.

Rather than lament the toss, in 1997 we should see if we're getting, genuine diversity with this diversification. Unfortunately, the difficult market realities for local stations suggest otherwise; the trend in this area could be to a few regional giants that sound very much alike, with smaller stations just about surviving on the crumbs from their table. As it is, a lot of people are already working in intolerable conditions in local radio.

The growth in Internet "broadcasting" holds the promise of radio access for a small, but ever growing elite. There is surely room, too, on the traditional airwaves for a more democratic distribution of frequencies, airtime, and technology. It would be interesting in 1997 to see the IRTC take on this issue, and before it disappears under new legislation - transcend its image as an organisation concerned simply with quibbling over percentages of public service content on commercial stations.

Artist to watch:

The mystery "anchor tenant" at Radio Ireland. Which top personality will take the Riverdance shilling when the new station goes on air?

This year's Must Sees:

1. Radio Ireland. The new national commercial station hits the airwaves on March 17th, for the delectation of thirtysomethings.

2. An anti-5 Live backlash. After the end of the soccer season, someone is going to notice, that the chat on the lads' station is conservative, often trivial and bloke-ish - Auntie Beeb's shockingly Americanised spawn.

3. Community radio. More and better programming - from the likes of the lively "community of interest" station, Dublin Weekend Radio - will challenge commercial radio's claims to local "public service" status.

4. In the Company of Sondheim. Tuesdays on BBC Radio 2. The greatest living purveyor of musical theatre turns radio presenter for the first time in a series profiling his would be successors.

5. RTE documentaries. A hot crop of new programme makers have come through and are breaking the worthy mould.

6. General election coverage. In Ireland and Britain, who needs fancy graphics when you can have less inhibited chat?