RUGBY:UN MOMENT de vérité. For both Ireland and France, tomorrow is a moment of truth, the day when either Ireland will run and deliver their new game or France will truly bury their ghosts of last November; the day when the last two Grand Slam champions either retain or lose their chances of another one.
With the game’s first try specifically in mind, there’ll also be defining moments. As Brian O’Driscoll said earlier in the week, it would be more worrying if Ireland weren’t creating chances. A tad short of confidence, they’re hurrying their opportunities rather than trusting their instinct. If you could wish one thing for them, it would be an early try.
That French try within three minutes of the kick-off against Scotland last week settled their nerves after their November horrors. Rewind to Jamie Heaslip’s 35th-minute try which put Ireland ahead in the win (Ireland’s only victory in the last eight meetings) two years ago. With one bound Ireland were free from their World Cup hangover and went on to win the Grand Slam.
They’re not in as bad a place now, even if you could argue that they haven’t really produced a complete, winning performance against front-line opposition since England and Wales last season. However, Ireland are hell bent on pursuing their running game – the laws don’t give them much option anyway – and for all France’s brilliant running last week, 25 missed tackles and three more leaked tries offers encouragement, particularly the pick-and-go at rucks and attacking the 10-12-13 channels.
While mindful of the likely wet conditions, backs coach Alan Gaffney yesterday vowed: “We will attack them. It’s the only way to play a French side, whether you’re playing at international or Heineken Cup level. There’s no point sitting back against the French. That’s exactly what they want you to do. You’ve got to take the game to the French.”
However, the stakes have been raised. No team coming off a record home hammering could respond as France did last week. Three of their four tries were effectively from turnovers, and no team is more alert to such possibilities.
“If we turn over some of the ball we did last weekend we’ll be punished, and we understand that,” admitted Gaffney. “But that’s the pressure these guys like playing under. We’re not going to withdraw. We’re still going to play the way we know.”
But Ireland also need to mix their tactics, by dint of taking them on close in and also turning their wingers with well-placed kicks by Jonny Sexton and co, to apply pressure, play territory early on and get the crowd into the game. Acknowledging that last week’s affair with the Scots was a bit of a romp, les bleus are half-expecting this.
As Julien Pierre commented yesterday: “Against Scotland, it was game-game, pass-pass, play-play, large-large. Against Ireland it will be war.” C’est la guerre. It would be rude not to disappoint him.
Accordingly, the start will be critical. “We have been working hard to generate a great start in the first 10 or 15 minutes,” admitted Dimitri Yachvili yesterday, perhaps hinting that France may take early drop goal chances, “because we don’t want to be overwhelmed by the wave of the Irish fighting spirit.”
Those battle lines will be drawn up front, and yesterday Gert Smal accepted the French pack will challenge Ireland relentlessly in all facets of the game, with their mixture of squat and powerful front-rowers backed up by five tall, athletic players, all of whom can be lineout targets. Julien Bonnaire has been a particular thorn in the Irish lineout in six winning outings from six.
A la Samoa and the All Blacks last November, Ireland will be better this week. For starters, Gordon D’Arcy and O’Driscoll will not misfire like that again. O’Driscoll needs one more try to equal the championship record of 24 held by Ian Smith. Six of O’Driscoll’s 23 have been against France, and all told he has scored more tries against France than against any other opponent, with eight in 11 meetings.
It is also striking to note that while Ireland have won 20 and lost just three of the Six Nations games with D’Arcy and O’Driscoll, that win-loss ratio dips to 6-6 when they have not started together.
Tomás O’Leary’s participation is in some doubt due to a minor back spasm which he sustained during last week’s win in Rome and has sidelined him all week from training. He’s improving and has overcome a similar injury before, with Gaffney “pretty confident” that O’Leary will play.
If he doesn’t, Eoin Reddan will start, with Peter Stringer on the bench.
This Ireland team weren’t far away from blowing Italy away last week, they have a big performance in them and with it a real winning chance. In the heel of the hunt, you’d have to say that France have the better scrum, lineout, cutting edge and impact off an impressive bench (think of the dastardly Vincent Clerc alone, seven tries in six meetings). And that over 80 minutes this is liable to count in a close contest.
Yet Declan Kidney is the smarter coach, Ireland have more dynamic ball carriers up front, are underdogs at home and – coming off a flawed, criticized effort – will play inestimably better. Psychologically too, the provinces have taken five French scalps at home this season. Mentally, Ireland just might be the stronger.
Betting (Paddy Power): 6/4 Ireland, 20/1 Draw, 8/13 France.
Forecast: Ireland to win.
