Ireland seek to build for better day

A millennium has dawned and perhaps reality has as well. Neither the players, management, former players or the media have hyped up Ireland's chances as is normally the custom - Wales have taken on that trait. Even the eternally optimistic Irish rugby supporters appear to have their limit and today at Twickenham looks like it.

Any hope is tempered by the cold facts - the stat attack. Ireland, after all, haven't won their opening match since beating Scotland in 1988 by 22-18, way back when Jimmy Davidson was in charge for the first time and Packo Fitzgerald was debuting.

The optimism kept returning over the last dozen years only for Ireland to be immediately put on the back foot and obliged to play catch-up for the remainder of the campaign. True there were the famous wins over England in '93 and '94, illuminating the gloomy '90s in which the other six wins were all over Wales.

Yet there have only ever been five Irish wins at Twickenham and since the last of them in '94, England have won all five head-to-heads by an average winning margin of 19 points.

Accordingly the bookies generally make it a 16-point game, with England roaring hot 1 to 9 favourites and Ireland an 11 to 2 chance or thereabouts.

Thus, although as Keith Wood says we Irish crave success, the purveyors of these cold facts must strive to temper the annual outpouring of excessive optimism. Tog go bog e.

And yet, and yet . . .

You can't help but feel that Ireland have a far better chance than 11 to 2. Admittedly this is as much to do with how vulnerable England might be as how good Ireland might be. Playing England immediately after one of their all too predictable World Cup anti-climaxes - be it rugby, cricket or football - is usually a good time to play them and this looks like no exception.

In the fall-out from the World Cup, a lot of manure has hit the ventilator. A post-World Cup report by Clive Woodward, in which he stated his desire to move upstairs to a director of rugby role, was leaked. He reportedly recommended Dick Best as coach, criticised assistants John Mitchell, for being too close to the players, and Brian Ashton, for not being able to get across his technical expertise. Mitchell, his relationship with Woodward strained, has reputedly tried unsuccessfully to fast-forward his imminent return to New Zealand.

The team has lost tight-five mainstay and captain Martin Johnson through injury, as well as a host of experienced performers from last year. This has particularly undermined their midfield, leaving them with an untried three-quarter line.

Furthermore, they've had a difficult build-up, most of the squad having to play three games over eight days in the week before this match. That workload limited the scope for quality training this week. Some of their players, such as Neil Back, have complained of being drained.

By comparison, nine of Ireland's home-based players in the squad took last weekend off. By and large, more of Ireland's players, particularly Conor O'Shea, Justin Bishop and Kevin Maggs, seem to be coming into form.

It could even be that the retention of 11 players from the Lens starting line-up will work in Ireland's favour. They appear to have a heads-down determination to restore some credibility and respond to the flak.

Despite the legacy of Lens, Ireland are arguably in better shape mentally than eight years ago when, after the high of the Australian quarter-final, a fading team began the championship with a dismal 16-15 defeat to a poor Welsh side at Lansdowne Road.

Several Irish players know they are due a big game. Or else it could signal the end of their international careers. In this regard, O'Shea needs to get the ball in his hands early to get his confidence up.

David Humphreys has something to prove too. It could be that the mercurial one is better off coming into this game via the tradesman's entrance, as opposed to the front door which had been reserved for Ronan O'Gara.

Humphreys looks like Ireland's key. He's more mature than this time a year ago, his goalkicking is in good nick and if he clicks with Mike Mullins and Brian O'Driscoll, then Ireland's one genuine open-side, Kieron Dawson, could finally have a chance to showcase his talents.

Potentially, there hasn't been a ball-handling and running quartet like this in tandem for Ireland in years.

But for all that to come into play, the Irish pack has to provide a platform, especially at scrum time where the new use-it-or-lose-it principle emphasises the need to give Anthony Foley decent ball, and not to wheel or inch backwards. It has to be said, the Irish scrum has generally been bigger on talk than deed.

This is a big, big game for Foley. Doubts remain about his pace for Test rugby, but he deserves this chance. He takes the ball into contact well, is a clever footballer, and his work-rate close in should complement the more roving commissions of Dawson and Dion O'Cuinneagain. The trio make up Ireland's ninth back-row combination in two years.

The plan must be to manouevre the ball to O'Cuinneagain in loose play well away from the breakdown. Then again, England will have something similar in mind, with Richard Hill providing the balance to the looser Lawrence Dallaglio and Neil Back.

Aside from the question mark about Ireland's midfield defence, one fears for this Irish team if England start to move the ball wide one way, and then quickly back the other, with Dallaglio and co being launched in full flight.

Dallaglio remains the main man. He bossed last year's clash in Dublin, and appears to have taken his foot off the pedal throughout January in readiness for this championship. And with Matt Dawson becoming a real leader and threat at scrum-half, it is in this crucial middle five area where England look more settled and to have more savvy.

Ireland need an encouraging start - to both halves - and to be in this game entering the last 15 minutes. It just might spread doubts into English minds.

In the heel of the hunt, though, you'd settle for a good Irish performance, garnished with a try or two, and then let the result take care of itself.