Ireland can justify the rising hopes

Rugby/Six Nations: The penultimate step to the promised land can often be the trickiest one. Think back to two years ago in Cardiff when Malcolm O'Kelly's chase, Ronan O'Gara's low-flying, long-range drop goal and Denis Hickie's charge down dramatically bailed an under-fire Ireland out of jail to set up a winner-takes-all shoot-out with England.

Distracted, perhaps, by all the hype surrounding the prospective set-to with England a week later, Ireland seemed riddled by nerves whereas a freer Wales, without a point, swung from the hip, and often had the Irish defence in tatters over high-tempo, multi-phase attacks.

A key difference this time, of course, is that Ireland will enjoy the comforts of Lansdowne Road (if that isn't an oxymoron), where they have won 16 of their 17 tests under Eddie O'Sullivan. Besides, it's better to be going for the ultimate prize than not. France still have a shot at winning the RBS Six Nations title, although were Les Bleus coming here with a whiff of the Grand Chelem in their nostrils they'd be a different animal altogether.

A Slam having become more attainable in recent times - there have been five in the last eight years, albeit four by France and one by England - it has somehow devalued winning the championship in its own right. In France and England especially.

There's a theory about the pressure is now all on Ireland, but even so you'd have to wonder about the French mentality today, all the more so if Ireland make an early breakthrough and in tandem with the crowd build up a head of steam. At the risk of becoming a tad clichéd, cue the forecast cold, biting winds and drop of rain perhaps?

There's also a palpable feeling out there that Ireland's rugby has yet to catch fire. Maybe the baggage of 57 years of history has made them a little bit inhibited. The Irish coach and players alike have acknowledged the need to be more precise, patient and ambitious in taking the game to France. And generally they've been true to their word, whether upping the forward effort in Murrayfield, or the defensive effort against England.

"But the bottom line is that I'll take 1-0 tomorrow," added O'Sullivan at his eve-of-match press conference. "Let's look to win and then we can assess the aesthetic value of it afterwards. I would bet that if we win tomorrow it will be one score or less, because France are a good side with two Grand Slams in three years."

Bernard Laporte did not grant an eve-of-match briefing after his arrival yesterday, through there remains a question about replacements Frederic Michalak (calf) and William Servat (thigh), with Bourgoin's Benjamin Boyet and Dimitri Szarzewski on standby.

Subtle, prematch comments about perceived lawbending by prospective opponents (not to mention post-match diatribes) are now de rigueur, although Laporte's offering was of the sledgehammer variety when he backed Andy Robinson's critique of Jonathan Kaplan, and threw in the accusation that Irish players had come in from the side of rucks with impunity.

"My read on it is that he (Laporte) is mischievously trying to put pressure on Tony Spreadbury," said a somewhat annoyed O'Sullivan. In any case, with Spreadbury in charge we know who the boss will be, all the more so if tuned in to the ref link, and one imagines he would be impervious to this kind of codology.

France have won three of the four clashes during O'Sullivan's tenure as head coach (though Ireland also had two wins while he was the assistant coach). Defensively too, Les Bleus' dynamic running game and offloading ability offer more difficulties for Ireland than anyone else - they scored 122 points and 13 tries in those three wins.

Blitz defences do seem to cramp their style more than the kind of in-and-out, drift defence Ireland usually favour. However, it is a more flexible defensive system than that and one imagines the line will push up more aggressively today.

The uncapped Benoit Baby, in tandem with his talismanic Toulouse team-mate Yannick Jauzion, will provide a different, more elusive dynamic than the hard, straight-running targets Laporte has preferred, and O'Sullivan admitted "it's a bit of an unknown now how they'll launch their midfield." France can absorb injuries better than most; witness the stunning performances of new full-back Julian Laharrague and flanker Yannick Nyanga in particular against Wales. Nonetheless, the casualty lists highlight how better prepared in many respects Ireland are today. They are also more settled and experienced.

Johnny O'Connor will need help at the breakdown to counter Nyanga and Serge Betsen, there'll be the usual concerns about the scrum, but the superior Irish lineout is liable to have more of a bearing on events.

Although unlikely to maul a French pack into the ground, Paul O'Connell and co will need to reproduce the intensity of their Murrayfield performance.

A more multi-phased, patient, ball-in-hand game, launching Kevin Maggs and the forward rumblers at the Yann Delaigue channel (good player though he is, tackling wouldn't be his strong suit), before unleashing Brian O'Driscoll, Geordan Murphy and Denis Hickie in space, seems the order of the day. And if all else fails, Ronan O'Gara is as astute as any around at keeping the scoreboard ticking over.

The world rankings may not matter a whit come kick-off, but Ireland have usurped France in fourth place and no Irish side under O'Sullivan has ever lost to one ranked below them. They'll probably have to produce their most complete performance of the campaign thus far, but one senses they have the desire and ability to do so.

Overall head-to-head: Played 79, Ireland 28 wins, France 46 wins, 5 draws.

Highest scores: Ireland 27-25 in 2000, France 45-10 in 1996.

Biggest wins: Ireland 24-0 in 1913, France 44 Ireland 5 in 2002.

Last five meetings: (2001) Ireland 22 France 15; (2002) France 44 Ireland 5; (2003) Ireland 15 France 12; (WC) France 43 Ireland 21; (2004) France 35 Ireland 17.

Betting (Paddy Powers): 8/15 Ireland, 22/1 Draw, 6/4 France. Handicap odds (= France +5pts) 10/11 Ireland, 16/1 Draw, 10/11 France.

Forecast: Ireland to win.