RUGBY/ AUTUMN INTERNATIONALS: EUROPEAN GRAND Slam champions versus the World and Tri-Nations champions at the mid-point in a World Cup cycle. Stir in a capacity, 80,000 crowd for the Springboks' only visit to Croke Park, and add a whiff of grudge from the Lions tour to South Africa. Even Don King couldn't hype this one up more.
There’s an argument for ending every November window with a showdown between the Six and Tri-Nations champions, and in this instance both teams are seeking to round off stellar years.
For all the South Africans’ end-of-year weariness, Ireland’s status makes them the tourists’ most prized scalp and would augment their series win over the Lions and a Tri-Nations success, featuring an historic three wins over the All Blacks. For Ireland, it would complete a 10-match unbeaten 2009 and an unprecedented run of 11 without defeat.
And there’s more sub-plots too, loads more. For example, one imagines either Brian O’Driscoll or Fourie du Preez will be crowned IRB World Player of the year in the aftermath of the game.
Then again, how Frans Steyn could make the shortlist ahead of a host of Springboks team-mates who contributed more to their phenomenal year is a moot point. John Smit, for his unwavering standards of leadership, the peerless Bakkies Botha-Victor Matfield combination and Heinrich Brussow, after his stunning rookie year in Test rugby, all spring to mind.
While Ireland shouldn’t be as rusty as they were against Australia, the Boks will probably be the better for their Tests against France and Italy. In particular, Smit returns at hooker to join Tendai Mtawarira and BJ Botha in a frontrow that turned the scrum contest on its head against the Azzurri.
“When you look at the strength on the bench then too, (and) when you play the World champions and the Tri-Nations champions you expect to play the best and you know there’s going to be no weak spots from 1 to 22,” said Ireland coach Declan Kidney yesterday.
“They can play that number of different-type games throughout the 80 minutes. It will just challenge us everywhere. We’ll find out so much more about ourselves.”
The nagging suspicion remains that the Springboks are strongest in areas where Ireland might be vulnerable, starting with the scrum. This was where France began to physically smash the Boks in Toulouse a fortnight ago, but it’s highly doubtful Ireland can emulate Les Bleus.
Indeed, their scrum struggled badly against the Wallabies.
Also, as with the Boks or other teams nowadays, Ireland’s main strike moves nearly all hinge on the quality of their scrum ball, along with Jamie Heaslip – who will be up for this game like no other this season – getting them over the gain line.
But whenever we’ve doubted the Irish scrum, it’s usually delivered, and if ever there were a game Gert Smal will have the Irish pack well primed for, you’d expect it to be this one. Remarkably, it’s believed the Boks still have the same calls as when Smal coached the forwards in their 2007 World Cup win.
Of course, the Springboks will also have a good handle on Ireland’s instantly recognisable and, usually, full lineouts.
Still, Jerry Flannery’s darts have been on the money, and the tried and trusted Munster combinations can withstand the best defensive lineout in the world.
The other area exposed by the Wallabies was the breakdown, with David Pocock tormentor-in-chief. Cue Brussow. If the Boks wreak anything like the same damage, they’ll be more lethal on turnover possession.
Admittedly, there were clear signs, albeit against Fiji, that the Irish have worked on the ball carriers’ footwork and presentation (few could demonstrate this better than Brian O’Driscoll and David Wallace) and on quicker support/clearing out.
But with the revised laws favouring Brussow-type groundhogs, Ireland may have to commit more numbers to the rucks than they’ve been doing. This, along with Nigel Owens’ refereeing of Mtawarira in the scrum (he tends to place his hand on the ground briefly), and of the breakdown, could ultimately be the key to the whole contest.
The Boks’ power plays against the Lions ably demonstrate how lethal they can be off strike moves themselves, and there’s no better scrumhalf in the world than du Preez (in ominous form) in running at defences and creating space for others.
Jonathan Sexton will be targeted, but he looks as ready as any rookie outhalf could be – indeed, just as Morne Steyn was in June. The latter is part of the best kicking artillery in the game, but, much like Steyn, Sexton is reviving long-distance spiral kicks. And in tandem with Rob Kearney, he can even give Ireland the edge in the kick-pong.
If Ireland can establish anything like parity in the set-pieces and recycle the ball at the breakdown, then with their fire-power they’ve every chance, not least because they’re at home and in a good place generally.
The Boks’ unwieldy, logistically bizarre tour hasn’t helped, but they’ve had a clearer, more focused run at this one.
That said, they do look tired and the impression is that, after all they’ve achieved this year, this tour isn’t uppermost in their priorities. For all that they want to end their year on a high, in a tight finish it’s conceivable Ireland might want it more.
And, mentally, after the Lions tour, Ireland can believe.
Head-to-head: Played 18; Ireland won 3; South Africa won 14; one draw.
Biggest win: Ireland– 32-15, Lansdowne Road (2006). South Africa– 38-0, Lansdowne Road (1912).
Last five meetings: (2000) Ireland 18 South Africa 28 (Dublin); (2004) South Africa 31 Ireland 17 (Bloemfontein); (2004) South Africa 26 Ireland 17 (Cape Town); (2004) Ireland 17 South Africa 12 (Dublin); (2006) Ireland 32 South Africa 15 (Dublin).
Last five games: Ireland– 17-15 v Wales (a), 25-6 v Canada (a), 27-10 v USA (a), 20-20 v Australia (h), 41-6 v Fiji (h). South Africa– 32-25 v Australia (a), 6-21 v Australia (a), 32-29 v New Zealand (a), 13-20 v France (a), 32-10 v Italy (a).
Betting: evens Ireland, 20/1 draw, 4/5 South Africa. Handicap odds (= Ireland + 1 pt) 10/11 Ireland, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 South Africa.
Forecast: Ireland to win.
