RUGBY ANALYST:Gatland's insider knowledge will help Wales, but maybe not enough to swing result
THE STRANGE situation of Warren Gatland having more time on the training paddock with some of Declan Kidney’s squad than the Ireland coach is the Welsh trump card today.
Gatland, having coached Ireland and acted as Lions forwards coach last summer, along with Shaun Edwards, leaves him with an intimate knowledge of the opposition, certainly greater than any other coaching ticket in world rugby.
They understand the strengths and weaknesses of the Six Nations champions. They would be aware of the meticulous research that goes into the lineout, an area that yielded two of the three tries against England at Twickenham.
Both tries came off the identification of flaws in the English defensive lineout. Paul O’Connell and his pack noticed where each opponent would be standing when defending a lineout in their 22. They attacked the tail for Tommy Bowe’s match-winning score, with Tony Buckley doing a better blocking job than an NFL lineman, and went to the blindside for Keith Earls’ try. Both tries exposed the positioning of the English scrumhalf at the defensive lineout.
It wouldn’t have been lost on Gatland, Edwards and Rob Howley that England employed excellent tactics, besides the aforementioned, to restrict Ireland to just four genuine attacking lineouts over the 80 minutes.
This is all useful information for Wales, considering as vastly an inferior team as England were able to bring the outcome down to the wire.
Wales will know their paramount task is to keep the ball in play and attack from broken-field situations. They will surely get more width and depth than England and go through multiple pass plays to exert some pressure. Like the French, they will examine both flanks, and Earls will be targeted under high ball.
The Ospreys style looks the best option. That means kicking long to keep matters alive as much as possible. This proves effective within the smaller confines of Liberty Stadium, so the wider plains of Croke Park should encourage it even more so.
The touchlines are to be avoided against the Irish lineout which, defensively and offensively, is matched only by the Springboks’.
For the first time in years Wales will be undermanned in three vital positions. Their secondrows are noticeably weakened with the selection of Luke Charteris to fend off O’Connell’s defensive lineout. They will simply attempt to throw it higher to utilise Charteris’ 6ft 9½in frame.
Ireland also have a massive advantage in the backrow. Granted, Martyn Williams remains a world-class player, mainly because of his nuisance factor, but the combination of David Wallace, Jamie Heaslip and Stephen Ferris was outstanding at Twickenham, denying the English trio any influence on proceedings. The proof is in Lewis Moody’s relegation to the bench for the trip to Murrayfield.
The great talent of James Hook seems wasted at outside centre. To leave him out of the team is unthinkable, but his current role seems to diminish his creative ability. And consider who will be tracking his every move.
Something is fundamentally at fault within the Welsh camp. They have excellent coaches and players, on paper, but the team is simply not gelling.
I feel there is a bit of the rock star complex about them. Their performances are consistently not matching great expectations.
They have been full of excuses post-game, refusing to take responsibility for some obvious discrepancies. They are probably better than what we have seen in the opening 60 minutes against England, Scotland and France, while not as good as all three dramatic end-game revivals.
The pack don’t seem capable of a gut-wrenching effort to match what the Ireland eight produced against England.
That said, they are due a solid 80-minute display, and if this transpires they have the fire-power to win.
The Lions factor could prove the difference. A lot of friendships and rivalries were enhanced in South Africa, so the Welsh will be desperate not to look their Irish peers in the eye as losers. Again.
Needless to say, neither will the coaching staff, especially Gatland.
Ireland will once again be inspired by Brian O’Driscoll. This week has seen tribute after tribute rightly heaped upon Brian ahead of his 100th cap. My small tribute has him as undoubtedly the best player I have coached. More electric than David Campese; better than Wallabies like Matt Burke, Jason Little, Phil Kearns or former Springbok captain Tiaan Strauss.
What stands out for me is Brian’s ability to constantly evolve as a player. His self-sacrificing attitude in games is contagious and utterly justifies the decision to keep him as national captain when the vultures were circling in 2008.
There is a serious rugby intellect evident both on and off the field, all underpinned by a huge work ethic.
O’Driscoll’s first game in an Ireland jersey was against a New South Wales Waratahs team I was coaching in 1999. His performance that day did not suggest the career path he was embarking upon, but he deserves immense credit for how far he has travelled.
I don’t know how many more games he plans to play, but he should be treated like a national treasure and everyone should enjoy the performances while they are still being churned out.
Great teams out-think their opponents before taking the field. Ireland have been more inclined to gut it out for their greatest scalps.
I expect a combination of the two and, as long as the weather holds, a great spectacle of running rugby awaits.
