IOC should make Rio happiest city in the world

ATHLETICS:Next Friday the International Olympic Committee stage their 121st session in Copenhagen to announce the host city for the 2016 Olympics

BARACK OBAMA has had one helluva week, and suddenly it seems he’s finding it harder to say “Yes We Can” than say “No I Can’t”. If Abraham Lincoln realised you can’t please all of the people all of the time, maybe Obama is now discovering exactly what that meant. Between trying to save the health of his nation – and indeed planet earth itself – he’s a very busy man. But can he save Chicago’s bid for the 2016 Olympics? “No He Won’t”, it would appear. Obama has more pressing matters to deal with.

On Sunday, he gave five separate interviews to US morning television trying to sell his health care reforms. Then he attended the United Nations special summit and tried to cool the climate change negotiations. On Wednesday, in his first speech to the UN General Assembly, Obama tried to promote a new era of US engagement with the world. From there he went to Pittsburgh, where for the past two days he’s been trying to stabilise the global financial economic crisis at latest G-20 summit.

Obama also goes to bed at night trying to work out solutions to Afghanistan, Pakistan and why American job losses are still rising. But government health care has been a leading item on the US agenda at least since Harry Truman first proposed it, in 1946, and if Obama succeeds on this, it would define his presidency more than any other issue. If he fails his legacy may well be “No He Couldn’t”.

Surely that’s enough for one man to worry about? All of which explains why next Friday, when the International Olympic Committee (IOC) stage their 121st session in Copenhagen to announce the host city for the 2016 Olympics, Obama will be on Capitol Hill debating health care. At least that’s the plan – and while many people in Chicago believe he’s doing a great disservice to their Olympic bid by not going to Copenhagen, others believe he’s doing them a service by staying away. When asked if they really want the Olympics in 2016, many Chicagoans answer “No We Don’t”.

That plan, however, may change. Obama’s advisers are keeping their options open, and dispatched an advance team to Copenhagen in case he does decide stop by next Friday after all.

In the meantime, Obama has written a letter to the IOC promising that the US would “welcome the world with open arms” if Chicago were selected. Plus he’s sending his wife, First Lady Michelle, to work the room in his absence. Oprah Winfrey is coming along too, by the way.

Truth is, Chicago will probably need more than the US President in Copenhagen next Friday to save their Olympic bid. The three other bidding cities appear to have a little more going for them; Madrid and Tokyo look more reliable, and Rio de Janeiro looks, well, more enjoyable. No one really knows how the 107 IOC members will vote next Friday, but for what it’s worth, my vote goes to Rio.

Still, should Obama make it to Copenhagen, his presence can’t be underestimated. Four years ago, Paris was fancied to get the nod for the 2012 Olympics ahead of London, Madrid, Moscow and New York – before British Prime Minister Tony Blair was the only leader of the five candidate countries to lobby the IOC session personally in Singapore, and we all know what happened next (London beat Paris by four votes).

IOC president Jacques Rogge says the 2016 vote should be equally close: “I see really no favourite. I think it’s going to be a very close vote. There is no bid that is lagging behind. All the scenarios are possible.”

It used to be that the city which offered the best bribes won the vote (Atlanta 1996, Salt Lake City 2002, etc) but these days it’s a lot more ethical. In fact, the IOC members are no longer allowed visit the bid cities, and instead the IOC send their 13-member Evaluation Commission. They spent four days in each of the bid cities back in April and May, and on September 2nd released their 98-page evaluation report. This doesn’t rank or grade the candidates, but rather assesses technical criteria such as venues, budgets, transportation plans, accommodation, security and public support.

The report may provide a guide for which way the IOC vote next Friday, but a lot can change on the day itself. Each city makes a final presentation which can swing the thing, and many IOC members still vote for individual reasons, including geopolitical factors. Plus the winning city is only decided after a round of votes, by secret ballot; each time a city with the fewest votes is eliminated, until a city has the majority of the votes. A lot depends on how the eliminated cities row behind those still left in.

It helps, however, if your country’s leader is in town. Spanish King Juan Carlos will be in Copenhagen, and the Madrid bid is impressive. They’re promising the “Games with the Human Touch”, and they have huge public support. But from the beginning, the Madrid bid has had one big weakness: it is located in Europe, and it’s unlikely the IOC would choose another European host right after London.

Tokyo have the backing of Japan’s new Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, although, like Obama, he’s unlikely to travel, and likewise has sent a letter of support.

It’s Tokyo’s first Olympic bid since hosting the Games in 1964, and with the motto “Uniting Our Worlds” have presented an appealing and compact city-centre venue plan. But the same way Madrid could be hampered by being so close to London, it’s likely the IOC will feel Tokyo is still too close to Beijing.

Chicago has a history of failed Olympic bids, losing out in 1952 and 1956, and hasn’t had the best of bids this time either, particularly in budgetary terms. They’ve also had to change their motto to “Let Friendship Shine” after their original one, “Stir the Soul”, translated in several languages as “Stir Your Insides”.

If Obama does show up in Copenhagen next Friday then it can’t be discounted, but many IOC members will recall the transport disaster that unfolded in Atlanta and fear Chicago could be as bad.

So to Rio – the sentimental and geographical favourite given their wish of staging the Olympics in South America for the first time. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has been campaigning hard for the IOC vote, and he’ll be in Copenhagen next Friday looking to seal the deal. He has every chance. The language used in Rio’s evaluation summary seemed to favour its bid, and as Silva has been pointing out, “it’s not a competition that can be only for the rich or high society”.

Rio is not only claiming great venues, but according to Forbes is the happiest city in the world. The IOC pointed out a potential conflict with Brazil staging the 2014 World Cup, but Rio reckons it’s a great idea to have both events with two years apart. Hard to argue with that one.

Unlike Chicago, Madrid and Tokyo, Rio is the one city bidding for the 2016 Olympics that can truly say “Yes We Should”.