Hard to see Kilkenny actually losing, but a rout like last year’s All-Ireland final unlikely

WATERFORD HAVE regularly produced moments of unpredictability but not to the extent they have confounded everyone this year. I have been pretty hard on them this year, even feeling Limerick had a good chance of winning and was fairly confident of a Tipperary victory in the Munster final before tipping Galway in the All-Ireland quarter-final.

The last 20 minutes against Galway was the closest they have come to their excellent 2007 form. They did produce a similar comeback against Tipperary but there was a bit more in evidence the last day as we finally saw some method in their play.

They needed to get past an obvious over-reliance on John Mullane points but Dan Shanahan finally began showing glimpses of his brilliant old self, while “Brick” Walsh made his presence felt in midfield. Add a renewed solidity in defence and they deserve to be back testing Kilkenny tomorrow.

Still, it is similar to last year’s massively underwhelming All-Ireland final and, much like Limerick two seasons back, nobody expects them to unduly trouble the champions.

I certainly don’t expect them to win but it is not so clear-cut. Last September was an isolated experience in that it was their first All-Ireland final and the hype around the county must have been unbearable. That, thankfully for their sake, has now calmed and all they are now expected to do is compete.

The circumstances are primed for them to play their best game for a long time. The question now is how well can they actually play? Maintaining the intensity we witnessed in the defeat of Galway is the minimum, otherwise they will be severely punished by Kilkenny. Yet again.

The ingredients, however, are there for them to really let go. I actually think they can avoid a heavy defeat similar to last September.

This is due to all the pressure being switched so heavily on to Kilkenny shoulders. There seems to be no doubt about them achieving the four-in-a-row. Just like the perception last weekend (outside the Kingdom anyway) that Kerry had no chance of beating Dublin.

Finding Kilkenny weaknesses has a habit of back-firing but there are some areas of concern. In previous Leinster finals they have always pulled away from Wexford in the second half but were unable to do that with Dublin. In the semi-final Galway forced them to dig deep in Tullamore, while Tipperary got among them in the league final.

I’m sure Brian Cody has identified the All-Ireland semi-final as the point where the real work starts. Get over Leinster and then move through the gears. It’s not inconceivable he has held something back for this juncture.

I have obviously never trained for a four-in-a-row but the very nature of such a long road indicates some levels of fatigue must start to set in. It must be hellishly difficult to maintain the same intensity levels in training, even the notorious Nowlan Park sessions.

The expected return of Noel Hickey (and possibly Brian Hogan) provides obvious benefits even if he has not played for almost 12 months. For one, it releases JJ Delaney to wing back and if Hickey is back to his best it strengthens up the last line of defence.

Also, they still have all the aces in the half-forward line, with Eoin Larkin and Henry Shefflin in immense form but it is the variety of players coming to the fore that makes them almost unbeatable; the last day it was Martin Comerford who outscored the rest. Another forward is duly expected to step forward tomorrow. Cody could do with it being Richie Power, if only to freshen matters up.

Power was supposed to confirm himself as the next great Kilkenny attacker this season but after an impressive early campaign he was withdrawn against Dublin.

This match is all about the Waterford defence. We know Mullane is on fire this summer; Eoin Kelly should contribute his usual amount, while Shanahan and Stephen Molumphy are both threatening to make serious impacts. Granted, Davy Fitzgerald’s team have conceded goals in recent big games, Galway aside, but if they manage to contain Aidan Fogarty and Eddie Brennan, who have not been as razor-sharp as last year, they have a chance of keeping it tight.

More than anything, tomorrow’s game will tell us a lot about Kilkenny’s mood. They have not shown us their ruthless streak yet in 2009 so we don’t know how hungry they really are. That could be part of Cody’s masterplan. He may need to loosen the leash now.