The only certainty about Cork and Kerry is that they have both significantly improved since they contested the Munster final last summer.

There was something of a jaded look about Kerry last year, as if they were still suffering the after-effects of their All-Ireland win and were constrained by an overall tiredness which eventually undid them in the semi-final against Kildare.

These were always going to temporary difficulties and Paidi O Se now finds himself in control of the same talented bunch of players, but a more mature group of players.

Cork gave the impression of being unsettled last year, as if they were uncertain as to precisely what route they ought to take, which was highlighted by Larry Tompkins's decision to contribute as a player again. It never really worked out for them, but over the winter they have regrouped and Tompkins has moulded a cohesive and deeply-focused unit. They were one of the teams who caught the eye throughout the winter months - I think in the league final, they fielded 13 of the players who faced us when the league resumed after Christmas.

On that basis, I suppose I found myself drifting towards fancying Cork to come out of Munster this year. They just seemed to have engineered the right momentum and looked likely to peak at the right time. But championship preparation, despite the underlying thoroughness, is a fickle business and a few small factors have combined to tip the balance in favour of Kerry again.

Cork have been hampered by a few viciously-timed injuries. Obviously Liam Honohan's absence is significant, if not unexpected, and now full forward Damien O'Neill has been forced to sit it out. They have also lost Michael Donovan, a defender who certainly shone in the earlier part of the season. Their absence certainly curtails Tompkins's options.

Kerry, meanwhile, seem to have unearthed a more diverse range of attacking options. They have evolved from the 1997 team which thrived on a game-plan seemingly based around the genius of Maurice Fitzgerald. There is no longer the sense that they are as reliant on the Cahirciveen man, although he still remains the most vital cog in their team.

Galway played them in a challenge game in early June and the fluidity and imagination with which they ran the ball forced one to note them down as very viable contenders.

Johnny Crowley is really coming into himself, Liam Hassett has been restored to the attack, Fitzgerald has further honed his lethally-effective game, and Mike Frank Russell is on the verge of returning again. Meantime, Eamonn Breen's re-integration significantly bolsters the defence and their younger defenders, such as Barry O'Shea and the deservedly re-instated Killian Burns, have accumulated another season's worth of savvy.

However, there are still certain imponderables to consider when you scrutinise Kerry. You really have to trawl the archives to happen upon the last serious test this Kerry team has encountered. Munster has regressed into an old firm situation in terms of the championship and by getting demoted in the league, Kerry have simply been lining out against teams which they were generally expected to beat. Their last game of real importance, against Meath in the league quarter-final on an appalling day in Limerick, saw them perform dismally. So they have, to a degree, been in limbo since crashing against Kildare last year.

The reason one can still back them with reasonable confidence is that they have proven themselves. They are a championship-winning team. I don't think Breen's brief flirtation with emigration has been of any consequence in terms of preparation. It's only those inside the scene that know what went on and while it looked unusual, his return adds real steel to the defence.

When you skirt through both teams looking for potential key match-ups, it's difficult not to fall upon the potentially mouthwatering duel between Cork's Joe Kavanagh and Seamus Moynihan of Kerry.

Much will also depend on the break at midfield - Nicholas Murphy is a young midfielder who has shown great promise for Cork, but overall Dara O Se has the experience and talent to exert the telling influence.

Both teams have sound defensive structures, as Cork recently emphasised by holding Meath to just three points in the league semi-final, and neither side is shy when it comes to converting scores either.

I genuinely do believe that this will be a close-run thing and, like so many Gaelic football matches, much will depend on the percentage of possession each side accumulates.

Kerry look to have the strength and maturity to profit in this regard. In the long term, a provincial victory is probably extremely important for Cork. They are travelling in the right direction and it may materialise tomorrow. But I believe Kerry will advance.

(In an interview with Keith Duggan)