Hotel Minella's pace to prove decisive

IT is somewhat sobering to consider that only six Irish trained horses - Hattons Grace, Another Flash, Winning Fair, Monksfield, For Auction and Dawn Run - have won the Champion Hurdle, and it is 12 years since Dawn Run of glorious memory gave rise to some awesome celebrations.

Furthermore, only two Irish horses, Classic Charm and Danoli, have been placed since 1984.

If Danoli breaks that lean spell today, the reception accorded to the "people's champion" and his popular trainer Tom Foley will at least be of Arkle and Dawn Run proportions. The paddock will not be the scene for the faint-hearted.

Danoli must have good prospects of improving on his third placing of last year when a blunder at the third-last flight ruined his chance of gaining second place behind the smooth seven-lengths winner, Alderbrook. Trainer Tom Foley believes Danoli's attitude will be better this time, as his preparation has gone more smoothly.

The question is, can Danoli turn the tables on Alderbrook, who produced such an explosive turn of foot on the uphill run to the post. There is nothing to suggest that Danoli has improved from last year, certainly not on the evidence of his two outings, at Leopardstown and Gowran Park, this season.

He did extremely well to finish such a close-up third behind Collier Bay and Hotel Minella on his long awaited reappearance in the AlG Champion Hurdle, but that run, promising as it was, was quite a bit short of his best. He did no more than he had to in beating the stayer Tiananmen Square at Gowran.

By the same token, who is to say that Alderbrook has progressed from last season? He impressed many when winning on his reappearance at Kempton but, like Danoli, did no more than what was expected of a class horse among some ordinary rivals.

Today's going might well be the deciding factor. Rain is forecast but may arrive too late to make any difference to what is perfectly good ground. However, Alderbrook, certainly, and Danoli, probably, have a preference for soft underfoot conditions.

Which brings me to Hotel Minella, essentially a good ground horse who, on unsuitable terrain, very nearly won the AIG Champion Hurdle. He might well have been the outright winner had he not arrived with his challenge quite so soon. He will have improved greatly from the outing

- as he had after his belated reappearance over the same course in late December. He won three Group Two events as a novice hurdler last year.

Aidan O'Brien has held on to his Cheltenham runners this season and all will be fresh to the fray. Hotel Minella is not the easiest of rides and must be held for a late run, but I am banking that his undoubted turn of foot will come into full play on what will, one hopes, be good ground. He is taken to credit the all-conquering O'Brien with his first Festival winner and Charlie Swan, twice-leading Festival rider, with his first Champion Hurdle.

King Wah Glory is not the most spectacular of jumpers but he is safe, and with the ground in his favour, this spring horse should run a big race in the Guinness Arkle Trophy. John McManus's chaser may give Conor O'Dwyer a long-overdue Festival success, possibly at the expense of Ventana Canyon, who has been working well of late.

The former Irish-trained Kimanicky is taken as a big danger to Dance Beat in the Citroen Supreme Novice Hurdle. The Ladbroke Hurdle winner receives a valuable 5lb sex allowance, however, and she is a very good jumper.

Good ground will suit Flashing Steel, who should at least give at good account of himself under top weight in the Ritz Club Chase. Only a few contenders will run from their proper mark, and Flashing Steel, who hated the ground on Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup day at Leopardstown, defied top weight to land last year's Irish Grand National on good going.