Hard to see Cork stemming the flow

All-Ireland SHC semi-final:ALL-IRELAND champions Kilkenny make two changes for tomorrow's GAA All-Ireland hurling semi-final against Cork at Croke Park. One of the changes was expected in that All Star centrefielder Michael Rice is recovering from a broken bone in his hand but is named on the bench.

Manager Brian Cody is able to mobilise a formidable replacement with former All Star and Young Hurler of the Year James Fitzpatrick coming. A further tactical switch sees Aidan Fogarty come into the attack for Martin Comerford.

It’s doubtful if Cork have ever gone into a championship contest with Kilkenny – or anyone else for that matter – trailing odds as long as 11 to 2. For all the whistling in the dark about how Cork love being outsiders and cautious references to how treacherous this fixture – hurling’s most prominent All-Ireland rivalry – has been for favourites, it’s been hard to find those who differ significantly from the bookies’ view of things.

Tomorrow is one of two hurdles between Kilkenny and an unparalleled five-in-a-row. There may be some nerves twitching in the champions’ camp but it’s hard to see such natural apprehensions being enough on their own to derail the team’s historic progress.

Cork are the only side that have managed to have what might be called a rivalry with Brian Cody’s exceptional team, with whom they split evenly four All-Ireland finals during the first half of the last decade before Kilkenny powered away to build the current sequence of four successive titles.

If the Cork players could distil all of their remaining powers into one 70-minute effort it’s likely they’d spend it all tomorrow on derailing the champions.

As one distinguished All-Ireland winner in the county put it yesterday: “You know that if we could win this, it would talked about for years and years down here, for longer than some of our All-Ireland wins. It’s one match I’d really love to wind back the clock and be playing in.”

It was unusual to see two of Kilkenny hurling’s big names, former GAA president Nickey Brennan and Eddie Keher, coming out this week to have a go at Cork goalkeeper Donal Óg Cusack for comments in a book he wrote two years ago, and certainly a departure from the deadpan pieties with which the county generally approaches big matches.

Two years ago Cork still believed that they could stop Kilkenny’s bid for three-in-a-row just as they had in 2004 and as had been done to them two years later. This time we have a match that not even most Cork supporters, as will probably be evidenced by the attendance, think they can win.

It’s easy to understand the pessimism. Since springing an ambush on Tipperary in May, Denis Walsh’s team have failed to get back to that performance level.

In particular goals haven’t flowed as they did that day in Páirc Uí Chaoimh. Goals and the threat of them unhinged Tipperary and Aisake Ó hAilpín was at the heart of the menace.

That launch-pad has been successfully interfered with in the meantime and teams have learned how to defuse Ó hAilpín’s threat by conceding possession and crowding his options. He doesn’t have his brother Setanta’s strength when it comes to breaking out of such land-locks and unless the support is on hand, attacks can wither.

Cork will try to isolate him one-on-one with Noel Hickey but unless the other forwards can keep the rest of the defence occupied out wide, it’s difficult to see Kilkenny allowing those situations to develop given the excellence of their backs to date.

The reason Cork need goals so badly is that together with their impact on matches – Kilkenny’s last defeat five years ago involved the concession of five goals – they would help make up the shortfall in points. When winning All-Irelands Cork were a point scoring team, averaging nearly 20 (19.8) per match. So far this year that’s down 2.5 points per match.

In Leinster Kilkenny conceded just 12 points in each of their matches (and one goal in the final).

Niall McCarthy has been Cork’s best forward this year but he will have a dilemma between his natural roaming and keeping an eye on Tommy Walsh if the usual pile of possession isn’t to be hoovered up uncontested by the Tullaroan wing back.

Can Michael Cussen thrive on JJ Delaney or Patrick Horgan deliver his best performance for the county? Tall orders, maybe but they look mandatory if an upset is to happen. And all of this supposes that the stronger sectors of the team from one to nine can hold their own against what will be an exceptional defensive centrefield and an attack that is putting up big scores.

Every surprise has its causes in certain (even vaguely) foreseeable aspects of a match but it’s impossible to detect where these might be tomorrow.