Eriksson has no margin for error at Anfield

For England's football team the shape of things to come over the next five years may well be decided by what happens in the first half-hour of this afternoon's World Cup qualifier against Finland at Anfield. By then Sven Goran Eriksson will know if the side he has picked for his first competitive match as England coach is a team in the real sense of the word.

His selection will be finalised when Steven Gerrard wakes up this morning. If the 20-year-old Liverpool midfielder is free from the stiff back which raised fresh doubts about his fitness 48 hours ago he will play.

"Gerrard did well in training this morning," Eriksson said yesterday, "and if he doesn't have a bad reaction he will be fit for the match. We will know when he awakes tomorrow but it was important he practised today." Nicky Butt is the obvious alternative.

David Seaman, another back sufferer, was declared fit yesterday and will probably be recalled, although Eriksson's reaction to the news - "It will be a difficult decision because I now have three equally good goalkeepers" - suggests the Arsenal man is no longer an automatic choice. That at least is the hope to which Leeds United's Nigel Martyn will be clinging.

If whatever team Eriksson fields beats Finland in style, doubts about England's chances of appearing in Japan and South Korea next year will start to ease. A convincing victory would set England up for a win in Albania on Wednesday and seven points from four qualifiers is decidedly healthier than one from two.

Yet for the country's first foreign coach, the margin of error is narrow almost to non-existence. Germany's 1-0 win at Wembley in October has all but ruled out the likelihood of England qualifying automatically as group winners. A further setback now would endanger their chances of reaching the play-offs as runners-up. At present they are bottom of Group Nine, behind Greece and Albania.

An historic first Finnish victory over England would spell finish for most of what remains of English optimism and another draw after the barren scoreless affair under Howard Wilkinson in Helsinki would not be much better. But a Finn win would still be a delicious irony for Anfield, seeing that Jari Litmanen and Sami Hyypia are playing on home ground.

Eriksson's approach has quickly shown refreshing signs of rationality. He has not had time to build a successful England side from new foundations so he is constructing a team from prefabricated sections of the best English parts available. Today's likely team, and the one to face Albania on Wednesday, might have been delivered as a flatpack from Ikea. The midfield and attack is drawn almost exclusively from Manchester United and Liverpool - even the one exception, Steve McManaman, was an Anfield regular.

The goalkeeping and defensive positions will be more diverse, with men from Arsenal, Leeds and Tottenham in crucial positions. Equally, much will be asked of a 31-year-old from Charlton Athletic who, as everyone keeps reminding Chris Powell, was once on loan to Aldershot.

England are expected to start with seven of those who started against Spain in last month's friendly at Villa Park, when a 3-0 victory ensured Eriksson of a successful launch as coach, even if the opposition's half-hearted approach did much to grease the slipway. It could be eight if, against expectations, Eriksson prefers Phil Neville at right-back to his brother Gary. If the predictions are correct, however, Gary Neville will join Rio Ferdinand, Sol Campbell and Powell in the back four, with Gerrard and Paul Scholes in midfield flanked by David Beckham and McManaman.

Andy Cole will lead the attack, with Michael Owen dropping off, a combination that showed promise against Spain. Cole gave his best England performance in that game, although the player's protestations this week that none of Eriksson's predecessors understood him was a bit rich coming from striker who has not scored in 11 international appearances.

That should change this afternoon, provided England get an early grip of the midfield. Gerrard and Scholes will be important both in linking defence to attack and preventing Litmanen, in particular, from getting behind them.

"I never mark man-for-man," Eriksson explained yesterday, "but we must try not to give Litmanen too much space. Then he can be a danger. Finland are a very organised team with two quick players up front and central defenders who are good in the air. We must not allow ourselves to become stretched. You cannot play good football when that happens."

Cole and Owen are entitled to demand a solid platform from which they can take on defenders who know all too well what to expect. At the same time, Eriksson is entitled to expect Cole to hit the target, at least, when the opportunity arises. With both Cole and Owen in form for their clubs it is hard to believe that one or the other, or even both, will not score today.

In any case, Scholes's penchant for getting beyond the front runners to find the net is always a useful alternative.

Eriksson's appointment continues to have its critics. The strident cries of England for the English will not easily be silenced. All that this quietly knowledgeable Swede can do is win matches and give the country's football followers something better to look forward to than a spot of flag-waving followed by inevitable failure amid water-cannon accompaniment.

The Football Association believes, reasonably enough, that England cannot seriously consider winning another World Cup until the 2006 tournament in Germany. But for that to happen it is essential the present crop of players, plus any budding talents waiting in the wings, get tournament experience. Which is why England cannot afford to drop more points at home now.

Fifa ruled yesterday that England's World Cup qualifier in Albania on Wednesday will go ahead. Violence in neighbouring Macedonia had left the match in doubt.