England draw some comfort

For England, tonight's World Cup qualifier against Germany in the Olympic stadium has become less a question of apocalypse now than the day of judgment being postponed, perhaps indefinitely.

By announcing yesterday that the runners-up in Group Nine, England most likely, would be playing the team finishing second in Group Five, which will be Belarus or Ukraine, for a place in next summer's tournament, FIFA has withdrawn much of the heat if not from the match itself then at least the context in which it is being played.

Had England gone into the game fearing that defeat might have left them to face, for example, Portugal or Holland, the tensions among Sven-Goran Eriksson's players would have been high indeed. Now England know that if the main parachute fails to open they should still enjoy a reasonably soft landing.

For though no wise person should presume an easy victory over Belarus or the Ukraine, this would be a play-off England are eminently suited to win, especially given that the first leg would be in Minsk or Kiev. Glenn Hoddle's side reached the 1998 World Cup with victories over other chips off the Soviet bloc in Moldova and Georgia.

"If some think it's easy to go to Kiev to play football I can assure them that it's very difficult," said Eriksson yesterday, playing down the idea that tonight's match had lost some of its sting. "I don't think we should dwell on the play-offs until Sunday morning - and I hope not then." Clearly the England coach does not want any distraction from the purpose of tonight's exercise, namely a victory over Germany which would leave his team three points behind the group leaders but with a match in hand and a more realistic chance of pipping them for first place.

To this end Eriksson will seek to repeat the composed, disciplined performance that brought England a 2-0 victory in Greece three months ago and will field as much of that team as he can. Assuming David Beckham's groin strain suffers no reaction to an encouraging fitness test yesterday morning, there should be only three changes.

Sol Campbell will return to the defence for the injured Martin Keown, Gary Neville may well come in for his brother Phil at right back, and Nick Barmby looks set to play on the left, Emile Heskey joining Michael Owen up front instead of Robbie Fowler.

Beckham's apparent recovery will have considerably eased England's pre-match nerves. "He did almost everything today and seems okay," Eriksson said. "I'm very happy with that, although we will have to wait until the morning to see if there has been any reaction."

Rudi Voller and his players will have mixed feelings about having to deal with Beckham's centres, passes and free-kicks after all. For them a fully fit England captain will present on obvious danger but should Beckham turn out to be even slightly below par the Germans may be glad he is playing.

For as Eriksson pointed out yesterday, this is going to be a game of absolutes. "If you want to beat Germany in Germany you have to do everything more or less perfect," he said. As ever the crucial area will be midfield. At least the presence of Steven Gerrard should make it more difficult for Dietmar Hamann to run the game as he did when Germany won 1-0 at Wembley last October.

Gerrard alone, however, cannot cope with Voller's pragmatic midfield. When England lose possession, strikers and wingers alike will need to work assiduously to get the ball back before the Germans can create a pattern of movement whereby Hamann links up with Sebastian Deisler, who will be playing in space behind the front men, to pose problems for England's defenders.

Rio Ferdinand and Campbell were the centre backs in Eriksson's first three matches and are well equipped to deal with the heading power of Carsten Jancker as well as Oliver Neuville's strength and speed - provided they are not exposed unnecessarily to Deisler's skill and guile. A similar proviso applies to England's full backs, Ashley Cole on the left and whichever of the Nevilles on the right.

Cole's tendency to leave unprotected space behind him was horribly exposed by Boudewijn Zenden when Holland won 2-0 at White Hart Lane, and Gary Neville has frequently been caught out of position in Manchester United's early-season matches.

Marko Rehmer and Jorg Bohme, the German flankers, will enjoy themselves if the England full backs do not get regular help from Beckham and Barmby. Not that anyone will be able to help Eriksson's team if the ball is given away regularly in the bad old manner. This should not happen if England are able to pick up where they left off in Athens. And if, in his team selection, Eriksson remains true to the logical practicality which guided him to three victories in the qualifiers, he should give his players every chance to do just that.

Heskey and Owen have already sent shudders through Bayern Munich's defence in the Super Cup and could have a similar effect on Voller's back three this evening, and Paul Scholes will be happier advancing from midfield for Eriksson than he has been playing off Ruud van Nistelrooy for Alex Ferguson.