Cork's strong midfield and their eight scoring forwards should see them prevail. But it won't be easy, writes JOHN O'KEEFFE
THIS IS going to be an intriguing battle with strategy playing a major role in the outcome. If I got inside the head of Jim McGuinness, I imagine I’d see a similar tactical plan to that employed against Kerry. First and foremost he will want a low-scoring affair.
Colm McFadden’s goal in the All-Ireland quarter-final decided their strategy thereafter as it allowed them crowd players behind the ball. A similar situation tomorrow would suit them but this can only be achieved by avoiding the concession of early scores to the country’s best attacking unit.
Every Cork forward is a scoring threat. They will cause Donegal multiple problems, especially if quick ball is delivered into Colm O’Neill or Donnacha O’Connor.
Conor Counihan will have seen how easily Kerry coughed up possession. They should learn from that by ensuring individuals like Paul Kerrigan don’t get isolated soloing.
No other county in Ireland has the quality of Daniel Goulding, Ciarán Sheehan and Pearse O’Neill to launch from the bench should they need to double their efforts to break through Donegal’s ultra-defensive system.
Expect to see that now familiar yellow wall spread across the 45 with another defensive line in behind it. Donegal are so clinical up front that 40 per cent of possession is enough for them to survive. McFadden did very well the last day in the space he managed to acquire off Marc Ó Sé, one of the best man -markers in the game.
If McGuinness is to identify a weakness in Cork he only needs look at what happened to Donegal in the 2009 All-Ireland quarter-final. The half-back line of Graham Canty, Paudie Kissane and Noel O’Leary are at their best when allowed burst forward at pace. They will be swamped where they stand tomorrow. They also look a vulnerable defensive trio if made defend as a priority. Donegal must run at them.
That’s the key to beating Cork.
David Coldrick’s interpretation of the tackle could also have a bearing on the result. Cork’s hard-running big men, particularly Aidan Walsh, will endeavour to break the first tackler, while Donegal players will seek to double up and hold them up. There is an early, split-second decision to be made by the referee that will set the tone thereafter.
Another match-up that could steer the advantage Donegal’s way, is the use of Michael Murphy. He is such a powerful target man and so important to everything Donegal do. A fantastic footballer, I just believe that employing him closer to goal would reap greater rewards.
I don’t think even Cork’s strong defenders, Michael Shields and Eoin Cadogan, would be able to contain McFadden and Murphy on the inside. Donegal can win if we see that heavyweight two on two close to goal.
The main question is which county has the better collective panel. This is also a Donegal strength. Sure, Mark McHugh has been their standout performer in 2012 – be it sweeping up in defence or getting forward – and Rory Kavanagh works tirelessly in the middle and also gets forward but the mentality McGuinness has imbued in his players starts with work ethic and ends with trust. It means if corner back Frank McGlynn sprints 80 metres up the field he can catch his breath while another man covers the vacant station. And it happens seamlessly. That’s what makes them so formidable; any player can attack from anywhere, knowing he will be covered.
It’s also what makes Donegal so different to what we are used to seeing in Gaelic football.
However, I feel if Donegal sit back and try to crowd out Cork, like they did against Kerry especially in the last five minutes, Conor Counihan’s men will find the gaps to build up the required winning score – low and all as it may turn out to be.
The Cork midfield will win enough possession to bring their half backs into play. Add that threat to eight scoring forward options and it is hard to see all of them being shut down over 70 minutes.
Last year Donegal were satisfied with a massive defensive display. This year they have sights on Sam Maguire so they will break out of their defensive shackles at certain periods.
Their best asset is the collective engine. They are a tremendously fit group of footballers. I hear stories about the intensity of McGuinness’s training sessions. It is all based on small-sided football games. Starting with four on four to eight on eight to 12 on 12, with no quarter given and non-stop for 90 minutes.
It gives them a superior standard of ball handlers and decision makers than the usual inter-county group of players. It is most evident when one of them wins a turnover as immediately there are at least two overlapping options running off the man in possession’s shoulder.
Against Kerry this was relentless. Karl Lacey could be seen flying forward for the winning score in injury time and then popping up in defence seconds later to scoop up breaking ball off Kieran Donaghy.
McGuinness knows his team must put up a reasonably respectable score. Something greater than the 1-12 that saw off Kerry.
The first 10 to 15 minutes will tell us a lot. If Cork post some early scores, carve out a reasonable lead, the game will have to come alive. That would suit Cork just fine. All told, I think they will win whether it is a wide open or a tight, niggly encounter. Their experience and composure to see out a game should get them through. But it won’t come easy. I expect a captivating and physical battle before Cork make it back to the All-Ireland final.
