Connacht look to be running on empty

Challenge Cup Semi-final, second leg: Connacht may have finished last of the four Irish provinces in the Celtic League, thereby missing out on the Celtic Cup as well as the chance to qualify for next season's European Cup by dint of a play-off, but, however improbably and despite all the odds traditionally stacked against them, they can at least claim to be the only Irish team still competing in Europe as we head toward the end of April.

Admittedly, their last route into next season's European Cup looks to be an even bigger obstacle than previous opponents, history or at times even the IRFU have put in their way.

To reach the European Challenge Cup final at Oxford's Kassam Stadium on May 21st, Connacht must somehow overcome the Sale Sharks at Edgeley Park tomorrow by eight points or more. Challenge is hardly the word for it.

As proof of this, Sale have eight players in their line-up who featured in the Six Nations. A repeat of the scrummaging problems Connacht had in the first leg and their thankless task will become a hopeless one.

Out wide, they do have a cutting edge in the clever footballing abilities and elusiveness of Conor McPhillips, as well as Matt Mostyn's angles of running in hitting the line, but they are more likely to come into play whenever the wristy and expansive distribution of the prolific Paul Warwick is called in to play.

Their likely sources of points until that juncture will remain Eric Elwood's boot and their lineout maul, which gave them a late lifeline at the Sportsground, even if the normal beneficiary, Matt Lacey, has been ruled out.

Hence, they will need to be near 100 per cent accurate in the lineout and avoid any lapses defensively in their first-up tackling.

It will require a monumental effort over 80 minutes or more, most probably with astute use of the bench by Michael Bradley.

With injury doubts hanging over at least half a dozen of their players in addition to the sidelined Lacey, Connacht appear to be running on empty and held together with sticky tape.

The bookies' odds suggest a rout may even be on the cards, but given their late comeback in the first leg, and in the intervening games against the Ospreys and the Dragons, we know Connacht won't roll over to have their bellies tickled.

SALE SHARKS: J Robinson; M Cueto, J Baxendell, R Todd, S Hanley; C Hodgson, B Redpath; A Sheridan, A Titterrell, B Coutts, D Schofield, I Fernandez Lobbe, J White, C Jones, S Chabal. Replacements (from): S Bruno, S Turner, B Stewart, P Anglesea, M Lund, J Carter, C Rhys Jones, M Hercus, S Martens, R Wigglesworth, J Payne.

CONNACHT: M Mostyn; C McPhillips, M McHugh, J Downey, D Yapp; E Elwood, C Keane; R Hogan, J Fogarty, P Bracken, C Short, A Farley, M Swift, B O'Connor, J O'Sullivan. Replacements (from): B Jackman, D McFarland, S Knoop, T Buckley, A Clarke, J Merrigan, M Carroll, P Neville, M Walls, P Warwick, D Slemen, T Robinson.

Referee: Rob Dickson (Scotland)

Leading try scorers: Sale: Mark Cueto 5. Connacht: Paul Warwick 4.

Leading points scorers: Sale: Mike Hercus 51, Charlie Hodgson 49. Connacht: Paul Warwick 91.

Betting (Paddy Power): 1/33 Sale, 40/1 Draw, 10/1 Connacht. Handicap odds (= Connacht +19pts) 10/11 Sale, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Connacht.

Forecast: Sale to win.