Warren Gatland AnalysisThis is an opportunity for the Lions to salvage something from the series and the tour. The absence of Daniel Carter and Richie McCaw could leave the All Blacks with a big hole. Carter was probably worth around 20 points just on his performance alone last week, and McCaw is the best number seven in the world.
Rodney So'oialo has played a bit at seven, but it's hard not to think this will weaken the All Blacks. I'm surprised Marty Holah wasn't called up as a late replacement, but I can understand the All Blacks' reasoning. If McCaw were to get injured during a Tri-Nations game or a World Cup match, they wouldn't have a specialist number seven on the bench so they want to see how So'oialo goes.
I was also a little surprised by the original selection of Leon MacDonald at outhalf. He's not going to play there for Canterbury, so in the long-term I don't think he's going to be an option at 10. One of the other outhalves who'll be a more viable option in a year or two might have been a better proposition.
Nicky Evans has also had more time at outhalf lately, whereas Luke McAlister hasn't played a lot there recently, and with the Blues not having had the most successful of seasons he doesn't come into this game in a rich vein of form. For a 21-year-old, a lot is being asked of McAlister, to kick the goals too.
Against that, he's coming into a confident team fresh from a fantastic performance, and I suppose the All Blacks' management are taking a couple more risks than they would if the series wasn't already won.
From my experience as an All Black, I wouldn't for a second doubt their motivation. They will take a lot of confidence into this game and probably expect to win the series 3-0. They will be incredibly hungry because of the expectations they will put on themselves.
I noted Byron Kelleher speaking during the week of this being their time in the All Black jersey and making the most of it. They will put pressure on themselves to remain a part of this and retain that jersey. It's a chance to nail down selection for the Tri-Nations, the squad for which is announced on Sunday, and they'll be thinking of the end-of-year tour and a contract through to the World Cup.
There's a lot of motivation there for the All Blacks, and it's all personal motivation. And that's the great thing about being an All Black, because if you do give someone else that opportunity you might not get it back again.
A few players, like Sione Lauaki, McAlister and Conrad Smith, now have that chance. Lauaki is a fantastic ball-carrier, but the question mark about him is whether he has the ability to play for 80 minutes.
It's not a bad Lions side actually. I thought Mark Cueto played really well against Auckland. He was unlucky not to be selected in the first place. He's been the form winger in England for the last two years and has a fantastic knack of scoring tries. He's done well with small parts on tour, but hasn't had a real chance of making a claim for a Test spot.
Stephen Jones has got to play flatter. He was miles too deep in the first Test, and yet for Wales he has played very flat. Coming up against a young outhalf, he's got to be a bit more of a threat.
If I were in the Lions camp, I'd be looking to put a huge amount of pressure on McAlister by using a lot of ball off the tail of the lineout through Easterby, where they didn't have too many difficulties last week, and the All Blacks don't have a recognised jumper there. I'd use that to have a go at the number 10 channel through Will Greenwood or Gareth Thomas.
The big question about the Lions is their mental state and whether they're thinking of their summer holidays. The midweek team have been the ones who have put a few combinations together. They didn't play well on Tuesday night and I didn't think Auckland were very good. Team spirit was what won that game for the Lions.
Taking their cue from the midweek team, and with Carter and McCaw ruled out, this is a big opportunity for the Lions to go away with their heads held a little higher. They also owe the fans a big performance, because they have been a big highlight of the tour, and the midweek team. They did their job. They haven't been bitching and moaning.
It's important the Lions keep their composure in the early stages, when they probably used up too much energy last week. You need to be fired up, but you still have to be composed and relaxed. I hope Paul O'Connell will have learned from his mistake last week, because I would love to see him go out and show what he's capable of. I'd like him to go away from New Zealand having shown the public and the All Blacks what a good player he is.
I'd like the Lions not to kick away so much possession, and in Geordan Murphy, Cueto and Josh Lewsey they have good counterattacking potential, and that could catch the All Blacks out.
It could be quite close. A key question is if the Lions are prepared to go out there and do it for themselves, as rugby players. That's what the captain, Thomas, should be saying to them.
But the All Blacks must still be favourites, because if conditions are good they have the ability in two or three individuals to win a game.
(In an interview with Gerry Thornley)
