Championship hints at tale of the unexpected

THE Championship that has graced rugby for well over 100 years, first as a four nations exercise and then as five when France…

THE Championship that has graced rugby for well over 100 years, first as a four nations exercise and then as five when France joined the fold in the early days of the century, is with us once again. The big kick-off is on Saturday, with Lansdowne Road and Murrayfield the focus points.

There was a time during the turbulent days of summer when it appeared as if the championship as we have known and loved was not going to include England. Their clandestine deal with Rupert Murdoch's minions to sell what they did not own, was not only unethical, it was contrary to specific agreements and done behind the back of the committee appointed by the Four Home Unions to negotiate the television deal.

That deal had nothing to do with this season's championship, it was about the television rights for next season. But the other nations threatened to expel England from this season's series if they persisted with their stated intention. England stepped back from the brink.

The championship may still be about glory for the players - well some of them at any rate - but it is also about money. The money the players get comes from the sale of the tickets to the public. Do not be deluded to the contrary. In the playing context, application and dedication are the primary requirements. The only motivation that matters should - indeed must - come from the heart, not from the pocket.

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The appeal of the Five Nations series needs no elaboration from me, suffice to say it is immense, not alone in the playing sense but also from the social perspective. Part of the game's appeal has always been the congenial social clement. Long may that be so.

Let us hope that in all the ongoing changes that are taking place in rugby, these are aspects that will remain constant. There were suggestions that the advent of the World Cup would diminish the appeal of the championship. The evidence does not in anyway support that contention. Nor has the newly inaugurated Tri-Nations Championship in the Southern Hemisphere.

Through the years the championship has produced some great matches, immense individual feats and great memories. Personal preference undoubtedly colour an individual's memories.

This season, of course, the changes in the laws relating to lifting in the line-out and to the back row staying bound in the scrums will be in operation.

It is and always has been a championship that is extremely hard to win. That is substantiated by the records. For instance the Grand Slam has been performed on only 27 occasions. On 15 occasions no clear winner of the championship has emerged, the title has been shared. On several occasions, indeed, three countries have shared it.

There is, too, of course an added dimension to the Championship this season; there is a Lions tour to South Africa this summer. A place on the Lions tour is still a very valued honour. Already the speculation has started and is gaining pace by the week about which players will make the squad. The party will be 35-strong, the biggest squad ever to make a tour. Speculation at this stage is futile as the championship will have a profound bearing on selection.

The coaches no less than the players will be under scrutiny in this new era and one or two are likely to be casualties if their countries fail to deliver. Ironically, one of those under most pressure is England's Jack Rowell. Yet, his country go into the championship as champions. The form shown by England so far this season has, however, been less than convincing. But England stand as 5 to 4 favourites to win the title. Those are not by any means generous odds.

France are second favourites at 7 to 4 and those odds are not enticing either. I think the championship is open, but I do believe that making England and France favourites is justified. The odds against Ireland are 20 to 1 and that makes them rank outsiders, as Wales are quoted at 6 to 1 and Scotland 5 to 1. Those figures put Ireland's standing in fairly stark perspective.

How the fixtures fall can be an important consideration in the championship. England will be at home to Scotland and France and away to Ireland and Wales. I think the English would be happier if their fixtures were reversed. They are rarely comfortable in Cardiff, where their record is very poor. They have had only two wins in the Arms Park since 1963. They won in 1991 and 1995, but lost there in 1993. England will have sharp memories of their visit to Dublin in 1993 when Ireland were in a situation very similar to what obtains now.

The French have not found Twickenham a very productive venue, and have not won there for 10 years, but then they have only one championship win anywhere over England - last season in Paris - since 1988. They also beat England in Pretoria in the World Cup in 1995.

Wales must play France in Paris and that is an intimidating prospect. It is 22 years since Wales last won there. They play Scotland in Murrayfield on Saturday and it is 12 years since they won there.

Ireland's record against the French in the modern era has been dreadful. The last win was attained in Dublin in 1983 and the best result since was a draw in 1985. A win for Ireland on Saturday would be very welcome and is certainly overdue. Ireland must visit Cardiff where their record in recent years is excellent. The Welsh have not beaten Ireland in Cardiff since 1983.

Ireland must go to Murrayfield. Ireland's record against Scotland, once so very good, has been very bad over the last decade. Ireland's last win over Scotland was in 1988 in Dublin. The best result since was a draw in Dublin in 1994. Ireland's last win over Scotland in Murrayfield was in 1985. Scotland visit Paris, where they have won only once two years ago - since 1969.

A captivating championship is in prospect. Hopefully Ireland will reveal their capacity for the unexpected, in a positive sense I hasten to add. And who do I think will do the Grand Slam? I do not think it will be achieved by any country.