Argentina have real chance of success

The third-best team in the world against the fourth-best, yet despite the shots fired across the other two Southern Hemisphere…

The third-best team in the world against the fourth-best, yet despite the shots fired across the other two Southern Hemisphere giants a week ago, seemingly this is the biggest foregone conclusion of any World Cup semi-final in some time. South Africa expects and so does everybody else.

Ignacio Corleto cheekily suggested the Springboks' innate "arrogance" might work to Argentina's advantage and, just as typically, Felipe Contepomi more or less agreed.

That being said, the Boks have reason to go into this game with a superiority complex, for they have never lost to the Pumas.

Yet last week's defeats of their fellow Tri-Nations contestants should act as a warning.

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"It makes you realise what the World Cup means, when you get to the knock-out phase," admitted captain John Smit yesterday. "The quarter-finals are one of the hardest rounds to play. Of the eight teams, I don't think anyone played their best rugby.

"To see the two top teams go out, it makes you realise there is a lot to play for. They were beaten by two teams who are still in, and who can play under pressure."

Undoubtedly the Boks have a stronger squad and have the maul, scrum, and physical presence around the fringes to impose themselves on the Pumas as no team has done to date. If they establish an early lead, they are excellent frontrunners, as they showed against England: playing for territory, applying their rush defence, picking off intercepts through Bryan Habana or getting Percy Montgomery to land three-pointers from all angles and distances.

But as Marcelo Loffreda noted yesterday, the Pumas are themselves back in familiar territory: "We are usually underdogs, so we are better in this position. It seems that we have to be underdogs to put our mind in perfect line and this is one of those times.

"With the history of both teams it will mean of course more possibilities for South Africa . . . but that kind of adversity is where we are more comfortable. It is like it awakes in the players a lot of mental toughness."

Whatever else, the Pumas have no delusions of grandeur. Unashamedly smirking at the bombardment of up-and-unders they've rained down on opponents, their veteran lock Ignacio Fernandez Lobbe says, "Perhaps people don't like it but it is successful for us. We like to play to our strengths and we are very strong mentally and very proud to play for our country."

The Pumas, well-prepared and cohesive after last three months together, have benefited from keeping things simple.

As Pichot has persistently reminded everyone since their opening-night win over France, "I think we are not the best tactically, but our strength is the passion and the pride we bring to the jersey. Rugby is a very simple sport and you have to play it 90 per cent with your heart."

It is that, partly, which has made their rugby almost retro in style yet utterly compelling to watch (provided Scotland weren't the opponents). Admittedly, they play the equivalent of football's much derided POMO (premium of maximum opportunity) in the way they seek to play territory and maximise it with shots at three-pointers (they have converted four of 14 drop-goal attempts).

They may not come at South Africa with too many surprises but they do far more than just "hoof the ball up the middle", as Eddie O'Sullivan bemoaned after their 30-15 win over Ireland.

They chase high kicks better than anyone, their defence is ferocious and their maul is potent. In Juan Martín Hernández, Pichot, Felipe Contepomi and Corleto, they have men who play with their heads up and have the skills to seize the moment in open play.

They may be a little overstretched, and they will need to avoid injuries, but if the Pumas are still alive with 20 minutes to go, and start coming at South Africa with something different, then - as the Pacific Islanders have shown, the Springboks can become rattled.

Overall head to head: Played 11, South Africa 11 wins.

Last five meetings: 2005 - Argentina 23 South Africa 34; 2004 - Argentina 7 South Africa 39; 2003 - South Africa 26 Argentina 25; 2002 - South Africa 49 Argentina 29; 2000 - Argentina 33 South Africa 37.

Betting (Paddy Power): 2/7 South Africa, 22/1 Draw, 5/2 Argentina. Handicap odds (=Argentina +9pts) 10/11 South Africa, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Argentina.

Forecast: Argentina to win.