A game which may well fall to a half-chance

Like a lot of All-Ireland hurling finals, this is a tough game to call. I suppose the odds are with Kilkenny - they have already beaten Offaly in this year's Leinster Final.

They are a young side and have had a long rest since their semi-final defeat of Waterford. A cursory look at Offaly's summer points to a team who mulled through four unimpressive outings before their pedestrian quarterfinal win over Antrim.

But in the light of their three-game series against Clare, all previous inadequacies are now irrelevant. The Clare games will possibly have had a dual effect on Offaly.

They will without doubt be sharper, both mentally and physically and have now identified a solid sense of purpose. Against that, the games may have left them fatigued.

I believe, though, that the benefits of those games will far outweigh any lingering residue of tiredness. For that reason, I am opting for an Offaly win.

I could be totally wrong, of course, but having worked with Offaly I can vouch that they do not fear Kilkenny. They relish playing them and will carry a positive attitude into the game. All things being equal, they do have an excellent chance.

But much will hinge on how both half-forward lines fare. I foresee this game as being just as defensively orientated as many people are predicting. Both sets of backs have settled extremely well over the summer.

The Kilkenny half-back line is very good. Keoghan has impressed on the wing and Canice Brennan has sealed all the gaps at centre-back. If he continues in this vein tomorrow, he could play an instrumental role for Kilkenny.

They will try and deliver quick, low ball into their forwards and given that the backs are capable of generating fairly decent ball, Offaly's half-forward line are going to have to work to shut-off that supply-line.

Conversely, the Offaly half-back line is also very strong and they may well keep the Kilkenny forwards equally preoccupied. Essentially, both teams possess similarly cohesive defensive units.

Assuming that they both manage to hold their markers to the same number of scoring opportunities, you would fancy Kilkenny, on paper, to convert more of those. The likes of DJ Carey, Charlie Carter and Andy Comerford have been through the mill before and are potentially lethal.

But this must be balanced by the fact that five of the Offaly back line have been around from 1993 and 1994, are extremely experienced and not easily bettered. So this game may come down to one defining touch of genius. Carey and John Troy are two individuals capable of turning the match in an instant but the conclusive touch may materialise from a less obvious source.

Offaly need Johnny Pilkington, for example, to contribute more consistently. He has been playing in patches all season and as Joe Dooley is likely to be very tightly marked, the onus is on Billy Dooley and Michael Duignan to step up a gear.

That Kilkenny have a physically small forward unit may weigh against them. They have no John Power now, no man to siphon ball to runners. Offaly's main worry may lie in their mental state. If they go out there buoyed up by their supporters' conviction that they will win, and are too confident, they will be at a severe disadvantage, because they will not be sufficiently focused to beat Kilkenny.

Kevin Fennelly has adopted a no-nonsense approach all year. I recall Kilkenny beating us (Limerick) in a challenge match last May and since then, I could feel them gradually warming to the task, to the prospect of the Championship.

I also read of him responding to a donation for the players' holiday funds by suggesting they might not go anywhere if they lost this year. Uncompromising or what. Michael Bond came in under very difficult circumstances and has done a terrific job of coaxing the Offaly lads around to believing in themselves and in re-acquainting them with their own style of hurling.

Both men are tactically astute and their ability and willingness to adapt to on-field developments may prove pivotal.

I don't believe that there is any long-term significance in Kilkenny's return to the final. I think and hope that the newer teams will continue to emerge but it is only natural that one of the traditional powers feature in a final every few years.

Of course, this year's final also carries the possibility of the socalled "back-door" entrant winning out. Should Offaly win, this will not taint their accomplishment. The experiment has worked and Offaly proved themselves over their meetings with Clare.

A tentative nod towards Offaly, then, to succeed in a game which may well fall to a half-chance.

In an interview with Keith Duggan