IN a long and largely self-serving column during the summer, I tried to show that a GAA reporter's most high-profile task that of predicting winners -Should not be judged exclusively on whether the result is right or wrong.

I understand that this is a futile line to try and peddle and have decided to counter more directly, the slight that journalists in general (or even myself in particular) know nothing of what we write.

Below is a summary of The Irish Times's strike rate during last summer's championship. A tally of 70 per cent correct seems reasonable enough after a season which contained a fair number of shocks; although to be fair it's not the shocks that primarily catch you, rather those 50-50 matches that go wrong.

Football was more reliable with 75 per cent of predictions correct, while hurling came in at 61 per cent - the 39 being largely Ger Loughnane's fault as Clare were involved in nearly half the inaccurate predictions.

You can of course be right for [the wrong reasons and vice versa, but they even out. A final word on methodology: Draws aren't counted and the prediction stands or falls on the eventual outcome. This benefits the previewer, but I've never allowed myself predict a draw and consequently don't intend to be held accountable for one in the championship.

I wasn't actually aware of the precise figures, before starting this exercise, but it's more or less as expected (a ratio of 2:1 would have, been the rough estimate). Nor is it meant to be self-preening as there's nothing to suggest the figures are any different to those that could be attributed to any colleague writing elsewhere and anyway, most matches tend to go according to plan.

It chiefly demonstrates that all your correct predictions get forgotten as soon as anything unexpected happens. Many of the predictions were fairly straightforward, but I've detailed the hits and misses as well as providing an unctuous Commentary on the more baffling events of the summer.

APRIL 30th

Incorrect: SHC Carlow 2-11 Meath 1-13.

Mmmm. Bad start but unavoidable. Meath had beaten Offaly, the

All Ireland champions, and Wexford during the League whereas Carlow had gone poorly. Neither the fact that they had drawn their League match nor Carlow's preference for hard ground constituted a valid basis for backing against Meath.

MAY 14th

Incorrect: Westmeath 6-6 Carlow 3-14

This was a marginal enough call as there's never very much between the counties, but Carlow's defeat of Meath earned them the nod.

Their free-scoring attack, however, was hampered by an even more freely conceding defence.

MAY 21st

Correct: (SF) Westmeath 0-13 Wexford 1-3 (SH) Cork 1-22 Kerry 0-12; Tipperary 4-23, Waterford 1-11. Incorrect (SF) Donegal 1-12 Down 0-9.

This was a bit embarrassing. It wasn't that Down had been emphatically forecast to beat Donegal, but that I had made them All Ireland tips only a week previously. (This is a Down thing with me - the same happened in 1992 when they last defended an All-Ireland). Injuries were the key points here. Donegal's weren't as bad as had been made out and Down's weren't as rehabilitated as everyone believed. Sic transit etc.

MAY 28th

Correct. (SF) Derry 1-17, Armagh 0-10; Meath 1-15, Offaly 1-5; Kerry 3-17, Limerick 0-8; Cork 0-23 Waterford 0-9. Incorrect: Louth 0-13, Kildare 0-11.

It's irritating to get things wrong, but being right, isn t always correspondingly fulfilling. Goats can rest easy on the mountains when you set out to read the entrails on matches like the above. The combined winning margin in these four matches was 52 points. As for the inc9rrect forecast, its main flaw was inexcusable.

Underestimating Kildare's capacity to blow themselves up. Sucker punch, should have seen it coming.

JUNE 4th

Correct: (SF) Tyrone 1-15, Fermanagh 1-11; Galway 1-12, Sligo 0-8; Roscommon 0-19, London 1-7. (SH) Kilkenny 2-14, Laois 2-12,

Wexford 6-23, Westmeath 1-7. Incorrect: (SH) Clare 2-13, Cork 3-9.

Five right but the big match wrong. This was the start of an unproductive forecasting relationship with Clare. Not alone was the result wrong, but the whole tenor of the preview was condescendingly askew. "On the big days they've cracked. Winning from the front is more difficult as may again be apparent by tomorrow evening." Their winning goal came in injury time after the potentially crippling concession of a goal to Kevin Murray, a minute previously. Oh dear, oh dear.

JUNE 11th

Correct: (SF) Meath 4-15, Longford 0-10; Cavan 2-11, Antrim 0-8. Incorrect: (SF) Galway 0-12, Leitrim 0-11; Wicklow 0-9, Westmeath 0-3.

Of the two errors, neither was inexplicable. Leitrim should have won the match and did everything necessary except convert possession at the necessary rate. Galway's resolve was the surprise and the injury-time winner, its proof. Westmeath, on the other hand, had a number of question marks over their championship form under Mattie Kerrigan's management. No one could have foreseen the size of the win, but respective League form yet again framed a false picture.

JUNE 18th

Correct: (SF) Dublin 0-19, Louth 2-5. Incorrect: (SF) Monaghan 1-14

Donegal 0-8; (SH) Limerick 0-16, Tipperary 0-15.

The big match was Limerick Tipp in Cork, but the big surprise was in Ballybofey. Dave Hannigan, The Sunday Tribune's football Nostradamus, came over all introspective that morning and actually mentioned it - along the lines of "imagine if Monaghan won." We rolled our eye5 and guf fawed harshly. Nothing adequately explains it even allowing for disaffection in the Donegal camp and Monaghan's reputation as a coming team. In Cork, the match turned on Tipp s su pp9sed forward supremacy proving, to be an illusion - and Gary Kirby's unerring marksmanship. N9t for the first time, the destiuction of weak opposition (Waterford) in a previous round proved misleading.

JUNE 25th

Correct: (SF) Laois 1-16, Carlow 0-16 Cork 0-17 Clare 0-11 Kerry 7-12, Tipperary 1-13. (SH) kilkenny 4-13, Dublin 2-10; Offaly 2-14, Wexford 1-10. Incorrect: (SF) Tyrone 0-11, Derry 0-10; Mayo 2-11, Roscommon 1-10.

That Tyrone iesult is the one most confidently expected to have its rights snapped up for the X Files. Derry were motoring while the match was played on a 15-aside basis but once Tyrone weie dowp to 13, men, the match began to slip their way. There was very little to suggest, betore the match, that Derry were going to lose. Their recent meetings with Tyrone had been quite satistactoiy and on paper, they looked superior. Furthermore, Tyrone never again came near the toim displayed that afternoon. By comparison, Mayo's mildly unexpected defeat of Roscommon was as surprising as rain in winter.

JULY 2nd

Correct: (SF) Meath 3-14, Wicklow 0-9 (SH) Galway 2-21, Roscommon 2-12. Incorrect: Cavan 1-9, Monaghan 0-10.

This sort of thing is very frustrating. There wasn't much to choose between Cavan and Monaghan and Cavan were probably marginally better fancied. Tipping Monaghan was - you could smugly observe - a free-spirited sort of thing to do. It was nearly vindicated, but not quite. Oh well.

JULY 9th

Correct: (SF) Dublin 1-13, Laois 0-9. Incorrect: (SH) Clare 1-17, Limerick 0-11.

Clare again. This time, even if the substance was wrong, the style was right. The most memorable afternoon of the summer swung on a couple of misapprehensions. One was individual, the others collective. Had Sean McMahon recovered from a broken collarbone?

The popular theory was that he hadn't had enough time. Instead, he, was completely unruffled. Limerick actually did create some good goal chances, but inspired goalkeeping and bad finishing saved Clare from having to settle the bill in full. There was also an assumption that Limerick would display the battling qualities, that had downed Tipp. They didn't.

Finally, and most erroneously, Clare's 20 wides against Cork were drawn down as proof that their forwards still couldn t cut it at the top level. In fact, all, six forwards scored and a sustained bariage of long range points in the final 20 minutes turned the match into a procession.

JULY 16th

Correct: (SH) Offaly 2-16, Kilkenny 2-5. Incorrect: (SH) Down 1-19, Antrim 2-10.

For a change, look at the one that went right. With opinion about evenly divided - marginally tilting Kilkenny's way - the Leinster hurling final was a gratifying, one to get right. It was also pleasing to select the right but tons: that the widespread fears concerning Kevin Kinahan were well exaggerated and that Kilkenny's tull forward line would struggle f0f a decent supply. An 11-point victory was never envisaged, but Offaly, had, already had the dubious distinction of being my nominated All-Ireland choice. In Ulster the old rule of replays broke down when, the team with most room for improvement - Antrim didn t deliver and Down exuberantly exploited their unexpected second chance.

JULY 23rd

Correct: (SF) Cork 0-15, Kerry 1-9; Tyrone 2-13, Cavan 0-10; Galway 0-17, Mayo 1-7. (SH) Down 0-16, London 0-9.

This afternoon will be better remembered for the dafi scheduling of three provincial finals rather than the quality of any of them.

The Ulster and Connacht matches were fairly predictable, as was the Munster final, but to a lesser extent. Hopes were quite high in Kerry, but despite an early goal, the team played listlessly.

The preview foresaw Mike Hassett outplaying Colin Corkery - but emphasised the Corkman's dead-ball kicking which was decisive - and also the likely Cork stranglehold around the middle and its gloomy implications for Kerry's attacking potential.

JULY 30th

Correct: (SF) Dublin 1-17, Meath 0-10

No-one could have reasonably foreseen the quantity of a 10-point victory but the quality was on the cards. Essentially, the argument was that Dublin were demonstrably better than in 1994

whereas Meath were not. Dublin had also had the harder run-in which better prepared them for a Leinster final.

AUGUST 6th

Correct: Offaly 2-19, Down 2-8; Clare 3-12, Galway 1-13.

The All-Ireland semi-final was the one stage at which I communed with Clare. Given their high lev9l of achievement and the impressive level-headedness dispIayed after the Munster final they obviously had greater mo mentum than a Galway side which had endured a poor year and was still unsure of its first- choice 15.

AUGUST 13th

Correct: Tyrone 1-13, Galway 0-13.

The outcome was widely expected, but not the way it happened.

Peter Canavan's critical contribution of 1-7 was familiar enough but Galway's unwonted embrace of a short game caught everyone by surprise, including Tyrone.

AUGUST 20th

Correct: Dublin 1-12, Cork 0-12.

There's a suspicion of fraud heie. In June, what with Down having walked the plank, I re-adjusted my All-Ireland prediction to give Cork the nod and going into this match, harboured a sneaking feeling that they would beat Dublin. One of the things about previewin g is that you shouldn't structure your opinions on nonsense, so Dublin were tipped to win on the available evidence - even though I half thought they wouldn't. The two most salient points concerned the likelihood of Brian Stynes repeating his Leinster final form against another highly regarded midfield and the statement about Jason, Sherlock: "Still, if he gets behind the defence, Cork will concede goals" (in some ways an anodyne enough assertion, but one that looks good in retrospect).

SEPTEMBER 3rd

Incorrect: Clare 1-13, Offaly 2-8.

It hardly needs to be said that by this stage, I wasn't tipping against Clare lightly but, yet again, could see no reasonable alterna[tive. Where this fell most flat wa& [in the assumptions made about Offaly's forwards. Although the excellence of both defences was acknowledged, Clare's perceived problems up front commanded a lot more analysis than Offaly's. Yet on the day, it was the Leinster champions' forwards who came up short. Clare's attack actually scored more than Offaly's. Another assumption soundly refited was that Clare couldn't survive an off-day, from Jamesie O'Connor. End of a memorable season: There's nothing more they can do to me now, as JM Synge might have said.

SEPTEMBER 17th

Correct: Dublin 1-10, Tyrone 0-12

It would be fair to say that the final was a lot closer than, the preview expected. The half-time lead of five, points seemed, an adequate reflection of the difference between the teams but the fate of Charlie Redmond had a major bearing on matters. Not alone did his sending-off restrict Dublin's attack, but the loss of his place-kicking possibly cost the team three points. `Possibly' because the injury he carried into the match looked to have curtailed him anyway and, as the preview pointed out, Dublin had been scoring more from frees in 1995 than in the previous year. In the final, three points came from frees less than half the average for the summer. In other words, a fully fit (and not sent off) Redmond as had been assumed before the match would have left Dublin with a bit more in hand. Elsewhere, Dublin's midfield difficulties were toreseen but even by, the standards ot the champion ship, Tyrone s 90 per cent dependen cy on Peter Canavan was astonishing.

HURLING: Correct 11 Incorrect 7. FOOTBALL. Correct 23, Incorrect 8. Total: Correct 34, Incorrect 15.