A careless Ireland could be nailed on blindside

A Sunday afternoon meeting sandwiched between an epic win over England and a visit from the All Blacks is primed for another of those spectacular and embarrassing Irish falls. A must-win which is effectively a no-win.

Changing half the team might therefore have more pluses than minuses attached to it. The infusion of players previously kept on the bench or on the fringes should keep the team's hunger level high, and allows some of the big-game players to rest for next week.

Frankie Sheahan and Emmet Byrne should be busting a gut after a combined tally of 20 games on the replacements' bench. This is also a good opportunity for Kieron Dawson and Ronan O'Gara to remind everyone of their abilities.

And while the outside three lack experience, and each has his critics about his defence, there's little doubting their attacking potential in tandem with Brian O'Driscoll.

Gordon D'Arcy tweaked a hamstring in training yesterday, so Tyrone Howe has been called up as cover, and Justin Bishop reappears from the wilderness to earn a place on the Irish A side (Anthony Horgan switches from the right to left wing).

The word is that D'Arcy expects to play, though this means the outside three won't have had even one full session together.

At the risk of sounding a little Irish, this could go one of two ways, though this theory has more to do with the Samoan psyche and fitness than Ireland's. The Samoans - more than most - appear to be more easily encouraged or discouraged by events as they unfold on a given day.

Buoyed by an early score or two, say, or encouraged by the opposition's nerves or mistakes, the confidence can start to ooze through their pores. Alternatively, comebacks haven't always been an obvious strength, for they have on occasion lost heart and belief when they fall behind.

"It's going to be tough," says Anthony Foley. "Watching them play against the Development team, the width Samoa play with could be very dangerous. If you're not careful you could end up playing sevens rugby without actually wanting to play sevens rugby. So we've got to get our basics right and keep the ball, keep it going through the phases. It could be a dangerous game."

Much of the build-up has been shaped by Tomatu Leupolu's dangerous, ridiculously late and high shoulder charge ("tackle" hardly seems appropriate) at Sheldon Coulter in the tourists' warm-up game with the Irish Development side. Video viewings of the incident left an indelible impression on the Irish squad, as well as on Coulter physically.

"Samoans are naturally physically endowed and it comes naturally to play this game of rugby that we love passionately," explains the former All Black great and Samoan assistant coach Michael Jones.

"It's a way of expressing their pride and their ruggedness. Being the physical competitors they are they like to make a statement. It's a bigger statement hitting a guy and smashing him than scoring a try under the posts."

The danger here, aside from the obvious physical one, is that Ireland might be a little mentally unhinged. Still, there'll presumably be limits to Samoa's defensive work-rate given Ireland ought to have a significant edge in fitness over 80 minutes, as well as greater organisation and cohesion.

"You can see how physical they are," said Warren Gatland. "They're big in the legs, they're strong runners with the ball, they won't back off anything. We have to back our physical preparation, and hopefully we're fitter than them to play at a higher intensity, and that our pace and fitness will tell over 80 minutes."

Samoa could never be accused of being soft touches, and the addition of warriors such as Inga Tuigamala and that supreme heavy hitter, Brian Lima (pitted opposite Brian O'Driscoll), should stiffen their midfield.

Then, there's the change in backdrop. As Gatland observed: "Playing in front of 1,500 people at Donnybrook and then playing in front of nearly a full-house here at Lansdowne Road with the seating, and the adrenalin pumping, with everyone writing you off. I think they're going to be a different proposition on Sunday."

His counterpart, John Boe, says: "We haven't played for several months, we've a huge number of players unavailable, so what we want to do is to get out there and to excite the public, and give them a taste of island rugby. Whatever happens on the scoreboard happens, but we certainly want to leave these shores with people speaking nicely about Manu Samoan rugby, and that people enjoy the way we play."

Well, that's fine, even allowing for Lansdowne Road's habit of supporting the visiting underdog, but only to a point.

Ireland

(Garryowen and Munster) J Staunton 15

(Leicester) G Murphy 14

(Blackrock and Leinster) B O'Driscoll 13

(Bath) K Maggs 12

(Lansdowne and Leinster) G D'Arcy 11

(Cork Constitution and Munster) R O'Gara 10

(Shannon and Munster) P Stringer 9

(St Mary's College and Leinster) E Byrne 1

(Cork Constitution and Munster) F Sheahan 2

(Shannon and Munster) J Hayes 3

(Shannon and Munster) M Galwey 4

(Ballymena and Ulster) G Longwell 5

(Terenure College and Leinster) E Miller 6

(Shannon and Munster, capt) A Foley 8

(London Irish) K Dawson 7

REPLACEMENTS: K Wood (Harlequins),

P Clohessy (Young Munster and Munster),

T Brennan (Barnhall and Leinster),

S Easterby (Llanelli), G Easterby (Llanelli),

B Everitt (London Irish), M Mullins (Young Munster

and Munster).

Samoa

T Vili (Wellington);

L Fa'atau (Wellington),

B Lima (Swansea),

V Tuigamala (Newcastle),

A So'oalo (Christchurch)

E Va'a (Wellington)

S So'oalo (Wellington);

T Leupolu (Auckland),

J Meredith (Ponsonby, Auckland),

J Tomuli (Colomiers),

K Viliamu (Counties)

O Palepoi (Wellington)

S Vaili (Auckland)

G Stowers (Counties),

S Sititi (Cardiff).

REPLACEMENTS: M Schwalger (Hawkes Bay),

F Lalomilo (Samoa), A To'oala (Rotherham),

P Segi (Auckland), D Tyrell (Wanganui),

T Vaega (Auckland),

S Leaega (Italy).

Referee: Iain Ramage (Scotland).

On television: Network 2

Previous meetings: (1988) Ireland 49 Samoa 22. (1996) Ireland 25 Samoa 40.

Betting (Paddy Powers): Handicap odds (= Samoa + 35 pts) 10/11 Ireland, 16/1 Draw, 10/11 Samoa.