Constituency review: Commission says it was not possible to ‘future-proof’ Dáil numbers amid expected population growth

It was not possible to use the constituency review to “future-proof” Dáil numbers in line with Ireland’s expected population growth, according to the chairwoman of the Electoral Commission, Ms Justice Marie Baker.

Confirming that the commission is to start researching the issue of representation and how the number of TDs is determined, the Supreme Court judge noted that any shake-up of the current system would require constitutional change. “It’s something we intend to start a discussion about immediately,” she said.

The constituency review by the Electoral Commission/An Coimisiún Toghcháin decided to add 14 new TDs to take account of population growth that saw the number of people in the State top 5.1 million.

This will bring Dáil numbers from 160 to 174 and equates to an average of one TD for every 29,593 people. The Constitution stipulates that there must be one TD for every 20,000 and 30,000 people overall.

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A referendum would be required to change this and introduce new limits.

Ministers are already expressing views on the possibility of a future referendum. Fine Gael’s Simon Harris supports holding one and questioned if TD numbers should increase “forever and a day” and an “appropriate” number could be decided upon.

Minister for Finance Michael McGrath of Fianna Fáil has said he would be reluctant to tamper with the current structure, which has “served us well”.

[ Constituency review: Who are the winners and losers? ]

The commission had the power to recommend between 11 and 21 more seats under the terms of reference of its review. In response to questions on why it did not decide to add a higher number of TDs, Ms Justice Baker said future-proofing was not part of the review’s terms of reference but added “it’s much more problematic than that”.

She said the population is increasing and the commission believes two TDs would have to be added to the Dáil each year to keep pace.

Ms Justice Baker said the commission would not be future-proofing if it recommended a large increase in the number of TDs in Dublin because the increase in population could equally happen in Galway, Cork or elsewhere. “We couldn’t have [future-proofed] because we didn’t know where the numbers were going to be,” she added.

According to the commission, even if it had recommended adding the maximum it was allowed, it would still only be one TD for every 28,500 people, which would not take expected future population growth into account.

Ms Justice Baker said adding a higher number of TDs would have resulted in more county boundary breaches and would have been “quite chaotic”.

She said the commission will start its research on political representation levels straight away and that constitutional change would be required for any change to the current system. “It’s something we intend to start a discussion about immediately,” she said.

The study will, among other areas, look at the “potential future population growth and the potential future increase in the number of TDs” and “concerns expressed in many submissions [to the commission’s review] regarding the current number of TDs and the potential for more”.