With the nurses voting for strike action and rumbling of discontent among some other unions, the Government is clearly hoping that yesterday's high-profile launch of Partnership 2000 at Dublin Castle will concentrate minds on the importance of industrial peace to our continued economic well-being. Few fair-minded observers would take issue with the strong assertion by the Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, at yesterday's launch, that the series of national pay agreements since 1987 have provided the "essential basis" for the economic success that we are now experiencing, which has brought us within striking distance of the European average level of income.
In terms of job creation, there is no comparison between the economy's strong performance when there is a national pay agreement in situ and its much weaker performance when there is free collective bargaining. Helped by a low-interest rate, low-inflation environment, employment increased by a remarkable 130,000 during the lifetime of the Programme of Competitiveness and Work (PCW): in itself very strong testimony to the merits of conciliation - rather than confrontation - in industrial relations.
The terms of Partnership 2000 also have much to recommend them. The unions have secured a deal which will deliver an increase in real pay of about 2 per cent over three years as well as a commitment to genuine tax reform. There is also a welter of proposals to assist the long-term unemployed - who gained little from the PCW - and a £525 million package to promote social inclusion.
That said, the terms of the new Partnership are less than ideal. The proposed 9.25 per cent increase for the public sector may not sound over-generous but, on past evidence, it could translate into an increase of about 18 per cent when outstanding PCW claims are taken into account - hardly the kind of pay settlement that will help to keep inflation at bay. There must also be concern that the proposed increases in the public sector are not more precisely linked to better performance and better service for the public.
At this writing, the omens for the new partnership hardly seem propitious. Two of the State's largest unions, Mandate and the ASTI are among several groups that have recommended rejection of the deal. The Government also faces something of a Catch-22 in respect of the outstanding claims from nurses, teachers and low-paid public servants. Generous pay awards to any of these sectors would feed other demands. But, on the virtual eve of an election, no government will want strikes and confrontation.
Mr Bruton's clear signal yesterday that the Government was prepared to examine the many complex issues in the nurses' dispute is welcome and it could yet lay the ground for an imaginative resolution of the dispute. Certainly, it is to be hoped that the nurses' dispute will be ring-fenced and not allowed to poison the industrial-relations climate in advance of the special ICTU conference scheduled to vote on Partnership 2000 on January 30th next. The case for endorsing the Partnership is still a strong one. Partnership 2000 may not be perfect. But the alternative - a relapse into the old, destructive free-for-all habits - would surely be worse.