YESTERDAY'S DECISION by Pakistan's new coalition government to seek the parliamentary impeachment of President Pervez Musharraf highlights their belief that he is responsible for the country's economic crisis and is opposing its transition to democracy.
Sceptics argued that the two major coalition parties are at least as much to blame, and that the initiative should be seen as a spectacular diversionary tactic in the face of their growing unpopularity after last February's general elections.
Either way this is a significant test of wills in a highly uncertain political environment. General Musharraf was elected for a five-year term last October in a parliamentary manoeuvre bitterly resented by the Pakistan People's Party and the Awami League which triumphed in the elections. Despite the appearance of democratisation he retains predominant control of public policy and, crucially, is assumed to retain the backing of Pakistan's powerful armed forces. He is still seen by the United States and Nato as a central guarantor of Pakistan's role in their war against terrorism in neighbouring Afghanistan. But he is a much weakened figure who cannot rely on his previous bases of support in Pakistan's power structure and has not been able to consolidate it elsewhere politically or electorally.
Since the elections, the two major political parties have been in continual tension over how to share power, whether to change Pakistan's constitution and whether to reinstate the supreme court judges removed from office by General Musharraf last year. In their jostling for position and influence they have swiftly lost support as the economy has deteriorated, food inflation has risen sharply, and Nato have forces pursued Taliban targets across the Afghan-Pakistan border. Increasingly the Pakistan Muslim League, led by Nawaz Sharif, has gained popularity at the expense of the Pakistan People's Party still dominated by Benazir Bhutto's family following her assassination last December - largely because the Muslim League has been less inclined to compromise on the judges issue.
General Musharraf became an obvious scapegoat in these circumstances; but it will not be easy to muster the two-thirds support in the national assembly and senate required to remove him from office. Nor will this initiative be popular with the Bush administration, which believes General Musharraf is more willing to support the war in Afghanistan. Should the army intervene on Musharraf's behalf, Pakistan's tentative and unsure democratisation would be badly wounded.