In the last two elections the PDs secured up to 50 per cent of FF transfers, writes Noel Whelan
Noel WhelanFianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats did not have a formal transfer pact in 1997 or 2002 but in constituencies where it mattered the Progressive Democrats secured about 50 per cent of Fianna Fáil transfers.
In 2002 Michael McDowell was less than 300 votes under the quota so the need for Fianna Fáil transfers in Dublin South East did not arise. However, in 1997 McDowell secured 55 per cent of the transfers available when the second Fianna Fáil candidate (who happened to be this writer) was eliminated - 277 of them directly as second preferences and a further 1,464 as third preferences when they were redistributed from Eoin Ryan's surplus.
In Dublin South, Liz O'Donnell similarly did not need Fianna Fáil transfers in 2002. However, in 1997 she got 2,320 transfers when Fianna Fáil's Ann Ormonde was eliminated - 809 of them as second preferences and a further 1,511 when Ormonde's papers were transferred from Séamus Brennan's surplus.
In Dublin Mid-West in 2002 Mary Harney got 16 per cent (600 votes) of the transfers on the elimination of Fianna Fáil's Des Kelly, enough to put her over the quota. Although now in a four seater, Harney could struggle for her seat with either Fine Gael or Labour and the elimination of the second Fianna Fáil candidate Luke Moriarty might be important to her.
Fianna Fáil transfers did not come into play in Dún Laoghaire in either 1997 or 2002 but there is every reason to expect that transfer patterns from Fianna Fáil to Fiona O'Malley would be as strong here as in neighbouring constituencies.
In Galway West in 2002 Noel Grealish took the last seat at the expense of Fianna Fáil and there was no Fianna Fáil elimination. However, with Fianna Fáil's vote share falling and a strong Green Party candidate, the last seat in 2007 is likely be a struggle between Grealish and either Fine Gael or the Green Party. Interestingly, in 1997, when Frank Fahey's surplus of 1,285 was distributed (an exercise which involved the examination of all Fahey's number 2s) Bobby Molloy got a quarter of them although there was still another Fianna Fáil candidate left.
Fianna Fáil transfers really mattered to the Progressive Democrats in Limerick East in 2002. Tim O'Malley got 1,841 Fianna Fáil transfers in all - 442 from Willie O'Dea's large surplus, 629 when Eddie Wade was eliminated and 770 from Peter Power's surplus. O'Malley won the last seat over Fine Gael's Mary Jackman by 561 votes. In 1997, his cousin and party founder Dessie O'Malley attracted 2,183 Fianna Fáil transfers.
In Laois-Offaly in 2002 the distribution of Brian Cowen's surplus of 1,992 saw Tom Parlon get just 270 but there were still three Fianna Fáil candidates in the field. Parlon was second placed after Cowen and was long elected before the Fianna Fáil elimination. Parlon is unlikely to be as comfortable this time and in the event of a contest with Fine Gael for the last seat,Fianna Fáil transfers will be decisive.
In the unlikely event of Mae Sexton being in contention with Fine Gael for the last seat in the new Longford-Westmeath constituency, she can expect a considerable advantage over Fine Gael if there is any Fianna Fáil elimination.
The history of the PDs has been one of taking first preference votes from Fine Gael and then taking Fine Gael seats with the help of transfers from Fianna Fáil. Fine Gael's rise puts many PD deputies in a vulnerable position so they can ill afford a fall off in transfers from Fianna Fáil.