James Molyneaux, then leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, remarked in 1994 that a prolonged IRA ceasefire could be the most destabilising thing to happen to unionism since partition. Even the dour Molyneaux could hardly have imagined just how accurate his prediction would prove to be.
In fact, destabilised goes nowhere near adequately describing the condition unionism now finds itself in; turned on its head and seemingly rudderless would be nearer the mark.
Who could ever have imagined a time when unionists would be resisting pressure from the SDLP, the British and Irish governments and - almost unbelievably - republicans, to form a devolved administration at Stormont? Or when nationalists would be defending a Northern Ireland police service against repeated charges of bias, while unionist politicians sought to excuse physical attacks on its members and threatened to withdraw completely their support for the legally constituted upholders of law and order? This week, leading DUP members reacted to news of the total decommissioning of IRA weaponry as though it was something they had always dreaded, instead of publicly acknowledging that it is the clearest sign yet of a republican acceptance that unionists can never be forced against their will into any form of unitary Irish state.
(Senior Ulster Unionists, to their credit, have been more welcoming but it is the reaction of the DUP, by far the largest unionist party, that really matters.) And that, in a fundamental sense and aside from any particular issue, touches on the main reason unionism is in the state that it is.
Throughout the peace process, rather than seeking to make any real contribution, both the UUP and the DUP have opted for a negative and entirely reactive approach. David Trimble recognised the dangers inherent in this attitude and tried his best to counter it, but he was continually undermined by colleagues as well as opponents and, eventually, forced to resign from the UUP leadership. For the most part, while others have set the agenda, a sour-faced unionism has sat whingeing on the sidelines, coming to life only in opposition to the initiatives of others. Short-term, wrecking or stymieing tactics rather than the development of a strategic vision for Northern Ireland is the height of unionist ambition.
Both the DUP and UUP seem devoid of anything that bears even passing resemblance to a coherent and realistic plan for delivering political and communal stability to Northern Ireland. And that, after all, should be the primary objective of all unionists.
Worse still, neither party seems the slightest bit interested in developing such a plan.
Given all that has happened over the past decade, unionist leaders should, long ago, have stopped playing on the base fears and concerns of their constituency and began celebrating the many positive developments there have been. Despite their undoubted ability to present defeat as victory and a capacity for man-management that must be the envy of any organised body, it is self-evidently true that, after decades of violence, murder and mayhem, republicans failed to achieve their goal of forcing unionists into a united Ireland.
In fact, it could reasonably be argued that, far from bringing about a united Ireland, their violence succeeded only in making that a much more remote prospect.
With their acceptance of the Belfast Agreement, republicans have conceded that Northern Ireland's constitutional position within the UK can only be changed by a majority of the people who live here voting for such change.
An ending of the IRA's decades-long campaign of terror along with, as close as ever could be accurately assessed, the handing over of their entire weaponry and a political agreement that saw the end of the Republic's territorial claim and placed Northern Ireland's constitutional future firmly in the hands of the people, would have seemed like the stuff of outlandish dreams for unionists throughout the many dark years of the "Troubles". Yet, that is exactly the position we are in now. But, still, unionist leaders continue to talk and act as though the IRA had been victorious.Where they are correct is in claiming that there is a widespread sense of despair and alienation within unionism, particularly the working class.
But they pointedly neglect to mention their own role in helping to create that situation.
Political leaders determined to present every victory as a defeat, turn every positive into a negative and issue dire predictions about the future at every turn can hardly feign surprise when their voters lose faith in politics, become defeatist and enter into a collective state of paranoia, depression and fear of the future.
It is time political unionism moved beyond the comfort zone of self-pity and began to accept the heavy responsibilities that come with public office. Until they do that, it will be hard to quell the suspicion that supremacy within unionism matters a lot more to many unionist politicians than trying to establish a peaceful and settled Northern Ireland.