The appalling July vista opens up in Northern Ireland. Fresh on the back of Mr David Trimble's formal resignation as First Minister and Mr Seamus Mallon's consequent loss of his title yesterday, the publication of the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning's report and the Independent Parades Commission's decision to ban the Orange Order from walking down the Garvaghy Road from Drumcree Church next Sunday add to the air of political uncertainty. So much is suddenly at stake.
The chairman of the decommissioning body, Gen John de Chastelain, made a lack-of-progress report to the two Governments yesterday. He, and his colleagues, had been unable to meet either of the decommissioning target dates called for in the Belfast Agreement and by the Governments: May 22nd, 2000 and June, 2001. They reported that no decommissioning by the IRA, the UVF and the UFF had yet started, although each of these paramilitary groups had re-affirmed the circumstances under which they "might" do so.
Gen de Chastelain reported that a number of lengthy meetings had been held with the IRA representative since March, and most recently within the past week. They had been unable to ascertain, however, how the IRA would put its arms beyond use - neither the method nor the start date - except for the assurance that it would be complete and verifiable. But they believed that the IRA's conditional commitment was "made in good faith".
A testament to that good faith was offered by Gen de Chastelain also. Some people had said, he argued, that their inability to engineer a start to decommissioning had called into question their usefulness to the process and "suggest we now withdraw from it". Others had urged them to remain engaged and to continue to press paramilitary groups to begin decommissioning. Thankfully, having given both of these views "careful consideration", they will continue with their remit.
The reaction to the stark, albeit expected, report was entirely predictable yesterday. The Taoiseach sought out the positive aspects of it; re-iterating that it was impossible to make progress on one issue without progress on demilitarisation, policing and stability of the institutions. It was absolutely clear to Mr Trimble that, despite numerous meetings, the republicans said nothing about the what, how and when of disarmament. Mr Mallon suggested that the politics of demands for concessions should be overtaken by the politics of delivery on commitments.
This is a time of heightened tensions. Northern Ireland faces into its seventh Drumcree this weekend with uncertainty surrounding the political process. The IRA stated, before Mr Trimble's resignation at the weekend, that it would not bend to unionist ultimatums or British vetoes. It has made enough conditional commitments. The context for putting arms beyond use is as close as it ever can be now.