The Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister will be aware, when they meet in London today, that time is of the essence if the whole edifice of the Belfast Agreement is to be put back together again. They will co-chair a series of consultations with all of the main players, the Ulster Unionist Party, the SDLP and Sinn Fein before sitting down to work out a consensus, hopefully, on the way to proceed to restore the Northern Ireland Executive, Assembly and other North-South and British-Irish institutions as quickly as possible.
The task facing the two leaders has been made more difficult by the IRA's decision yesterday to disengage from the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning. The IRA has withdrawn not just its interlocutor but all propositions put to Gen. de Chastelain since November. It should be noted that it was the appointment of the IRA's authorised representative and his engagement with the Commission which was the quid pro quo that enabled Mr David Trimble to take the courageous step to "jump first" to facilitate the formation of the first inclusive all-party government in early December.
The nature and the timing of the IRA's latest statement must be a cause of deep concern to the two governments at this delicate stage in the development of the intertwined political and decommissioning processes. The Taoiseach was seen to be visibly shaken when one of his officials handed the statement to him in the Dail. The Fine Gael leader, Mr Bruton, spoke with conviction and for many when he enunciated his belief that the IRA had set out in a calculated way to humiliate the Taoiseach, the elected representative of the people of this State.
Faced with an important meeting with Mr Blair today, some Government sources professed themselves to be more surprised with the timing than the content of the IRA's statement last night. Whatever the reality, it is now absolutely clear that the statement was a tactical stunt by the IRA to up the ante in the forthcoming negotiations aimed at bringing the twin processes back on track. This, in turn, raises an important question about the coincidence of the timing of the IRA's report to Gen. de Chastelain last Friday. It now seems that the IRA only moved with the Commission when it was known that the suspension of the institutions was imminent.
The accumulation of the suspension and the IRA's withdrawal from the Decommissioning Commission makes it extraordinarily difficult for Mr Ahern and Mr Blair to devise a way round the current crisis. Mr Ahern was reporting some success in convincing Mr Blair not to proceed to a formal review of the Belfast Agreement, prior to the IRA announcement at 5 p.m. yesterday. The two governments will have to go back to the drawing board at their joint meetings to assess whether there is any realistic prospect of restoring the position to what it was in those limbo hours before the announcement of the suspension and after the second IRA report to Gen. de Chastelain last Friday.
That will not be easy. It is impossible to see how the institutions can be restored within the coming days. The circular argument will commence again. Who should jump - Mr Trimble by allowing the institutions to be revived or the IRA by putting their decommissioning statement of last week back on the table? One thing is certain, whatever the outcome of today's meetings in London: the suspicions created by the timing of their last two statements make it imperative that there must be a starting date for decommissioning as well as a starting date for the restoration of the institutions.