Few people believed the IRA would immediately disappear when its arms were decommissioned and its members instructed not to engage in illegal activities last year. That is not how things happen in a confused and messy world. As the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC) observed in its latest report: the IRA is like an oil tanker. It will take time to turn completely and there will be turbulence in its wake.
Unfortunately, time is a luxury that Northern Ireland cannot easily afford. If political progress and democratic structures do not fill the vacuum left by IRA paramilitary activity, there is a danger the entire process might unravel. Other republican organisations are already competing for the vacant ground. And the extent of criminal activity by loyalist paramilitary organisations is truly scary. Because of that, there is a particular responsibility on the Democratic Unionist Party to consider the long-term welfare of Northern Ireland when it attends the talks process organised by the Irish and British governments in Belfast next week.
Two prime issues have been identified for the talks by Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair: the restoration of devolved institutions and the establishment of new policing arrangements. And while negotiations are expected to be slow, following the findings by the IMC, that situation may change when the commission issues its next report in April and the marching season approaches.
The IRA insisted yesterday that it had honoured the commitments it had given last July. And General John de Chastelain rejected security intelligence and formally agreed it had disposed of all its weapons. But the IMC found it was continuing illegally to gather intelligence for political purposes while senior members engaged in money-laundering. Members and former members were also involved in organised crime, the report found, including counterfeiting and the smuggling of fuel and tobacco. On this side of the Border, Garda raids and the activities of the Criminal Assets Bureau have emphasised the determination of the Government to sequester the proceeds of IRA criminality, even if its activities are being wound down.
In spite of concerns by the IMC about the actions of IRA members, this report is broadly positive. It finds the IRA is being restructured so as to concentrate on political activity. And it accepts the bona fides of the leadership in that regard. On restorative justice schemes, it tacitly accepts that persons with paramilitary backgrounds and certain ex-prisoners may play a useful role in facilitating a transition to normal community policing. But it warns against creeping paramilitary control and the emergence of an alternative justice system.
Minister for Foreign Affairs Dermot Ahern took a positive view yesterday and spoke of a transformation in day-to-day living along the Border. The IRA has certainly come a long way. But its members must complete the transition to democratic politics.