Today's Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll may affect the timing of a general election campaign because of the sharp decline it charts in Government approval ratings. For the past two years, support for Fianna Fáil and the Coalition Government rebounded strongly in the immediate aftermath of expansive, socially-caring budgets. But that feel-good factor evaporated within a matter of months. On the basis of this trend, party strategists may now push for a spring election in 2007, rather than delay until the summer.
The findings of this survey will make worrying reading for Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats. Satisfaction with the Government has fallen by six percentage points, to 40 per cent, since January. And half of the electorate is unhappy about the way the country is being run. The level of disillusionment is greatest in the Dublin region and Tánaiste and Minister for Health Mary Harney has been singled out for particular criticism. Approval for Taoiseach Bertie Ahern has also declined, while support levels for Fianna Fáil have fallen to levels not seen since 2003.
Work on the opinion poll coincided with an unofficial rail strike and continuing bad news on the health services front. But projections for economic growth remained positive. And while Fine Gael probably benefited from being the latest party to hold its ardfheis, Fianna Fáil also secured extensive soft publicity when it celebrated its 80th anniversary just before the poll went into the field.
Fine Gael will be particularly pleased by the results, which show support for the party at its highest level in six years. At the same time, adjusted support for a combination of Fine Gael, the Labour Party and the Green Party amounted to 48 per cent, some 15 points clear of the backing enjoyed by Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats.
Those figures will provide strong encouragement for Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte to develop the policies for an alternative government. And while the Greens will campaign independently, party leader Trevor Sargent favours forming an alternative government.
The recovery in Fine Gael's fortunes at a time when support for the Labour Party remains static may cause friction at constituency level. That is particularly the case in the Dublin region where both parties now command 20 per cent of the vote. Gains made by Fine Gael in the capital, however, have been at the expense of Fianna Fáil, where support for that party now languishes at 30 per cent. The Green Party has also added to its strength in Dublin, where it commands 9 per cent of the vote, while support for Sinn Féin has slipped back to 7 per cent.
On the basis of this opinion poll, voters have become deeply disillusioned with the Government. But Mr Kenny and Mr Rabbitte have yet to connect vibrantly with the electorate. One-third of those questioned held no opinion about their effectiveness. To launch a successful challenge, that will have to change.