THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT

When the IRA ended its ceasefire 11 months ago, it not only re-injected arbitrary violence into the situation in the North, it…

When the IRA ended its ceasefire 11 months ago, it not only re-injected arbitrary violence into the situation in the North, it also sought to re-ignite the violence of the loyalist paramilitary organisations and bring the political process to a halt. This remains the position almost a year on, and Sinn Fein's attempts to forge an "inclusive" strategy for the talks at Stormont have inevitably been discredited as a result.

There can be no talks that include organisations which have not renounced violence and have not credibly signed up to the Mitchell Principles. The reason is obvious: talks involve the development of trust, and the use or threat of violence rules out trust. "Inclusiveness", as defined by Sinn Fein, is not a workable formula. Mr Gerry Adams's efforts to prove the opposite have put him on the margins of politics, and as long as he remains there the political process will lack the voice of republicanism, which is one - but only one - of the many elements necessary for its ultimate success.

How does this square with the continuing presence of loyalist parties at the talks? The Northern Ireland Office made it clear yesterday that the series of loyalist attacks in recent months (some obviously as reprisals for IRA incidents) has put a question mark over the participation of the UDP and the PUP. Up to now there has been a willingness to give the loyalists the benefit of the doubt because the Combined Loyalist Military Command, which co-ordinates the main paramilitary organisations, has not called off the ceasefire it announced in October 1994, and the leaders of the UDP and the PUP have given assurances that they are still dedicated to non-violence and have received no indication of a change of stance by the CLMC.

However Mr Adams and other leaders of Sinn Fein view the situation - or, indeed, leaders of unionism like the Rev Ian Paisley and Mr Bob McCartney who would be happy to see the loyalist parties expelled from Stormont - there are some points at which comparisons between the IRA and the CLMC break down. The history of 25 years of killing abounds with cases of individual loyalists or private loyalist gangs which have carried out acts of bloody violence but whose links with the main organisations have been tenuous. While the RUC has identified several recent attacks as "loyalist", it has not so far declared that any have been carried out by members of CLMC organisations.

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If such a link is proved, then there is no question that the PUP and the UDP will have to leave the talks. But the decision will need to be taken in the knowledge that excluding them - and thereby making it more likely that an all-out return to killing will ensue - will also have consequences for the whole political process. As matters stand, there is a reasonable possibility that Sinn Fein will be admitted to the talks with a minimum of conditions if the IRA reinstates its ceasefire. Throwing out the loyalist representatives, as long as there is a balance of doubt, would be a backward step for the hopes of peace. It would return the process to where it was in the early 1990s, with little prospect of securing effective agreement. Open and inclusive - and without the gun and bomb - is the only way forward.