NEWS THAT President Kim Jong-il of North Korea did not attend the 60th anniversary of its communist regime this week has led to speculation that he is seriously ill and that a succession struggle is under way.
These rumours have been denied, but appear to be based on his recovery from a recent stroke. Coming after the announcement that North Korea is to start reassembling its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon, it is a reminder that a great deal is at stake in the six-nation negotiations on denuclearising that state, and of how much they would be disrupted if there is indeed a struggle about who should succeed him.
North Korea is one of the world's poorest and most militarised states. Its fate is crucial for South Korea, which fears having to cope with any precipitate collapse, for China which might be tempted to intervene should that happen and in various other ways for Russia, Japan and the United States, all of which are involved in these talks. Little is known about whether Kim Jong-il has nominated a successor, possibly one of his sons. A collective leadership heavily influenced by the military is expected to assume power when he goes. It is not known whether the decision to restart assembling the nuclear reactor is linked to this uncertainty. It was blamed last week on President Bush's failure to remove North Korea from the US list of terrorist states under an agreement reached last year, but was not taken that seriously by South Korean officials. Another issue is the US insistence on a credible verification process if that is to be done.
The policy of engaging North Korea in talks rather than containing it has paid off in agreements that it would dismantle its nuclear weapons and capacity in return for a comprehensive energy and economic aid programme. As a result one of its main nuclear reactors was destroyed. This gradualist programme is associated with internal reforms intended to boost its economy, which all assume to have had Kim Jong-il's full support. If the uncertainty about his health continues it is bound to open up the question of whether a more hardline approach is gaining the ascendancy.
South Korea's new president Lee Myung-bak held anxious consultations with his security advisers this week on that possibility. Indications are that the North Korean leader is recovering. But South Korean newspapers are reminding their readers that the prospect of destabilisation is real and that contingency plans to deal with it cannot be put off indefinitely.