The recent TG4 poll in the Dublin South West constituency has revived speculation on the role Sinn Fein may play in the next Dail. While too much cannot be read from a single poll of 400 people in one constituency, it must be said that in the light of what national polls have been showing for the past year, the support for the Sinn Fein candidate in Dublin South West evidenced in this poll is not surprising.
Before the 1997 election the MRBI/ Irish Times polls showed very limited national support for Sinn Fein. An average of the three MRBI polls in the month before the 1997 election shows Sinn Fein support at 1.6 per cent.
However, in the election showing for Sinn Fein candidates in the one-third of the constituencies where they stood, they secured 2.5 per cent of the votes cast. Had SF contested every constituency it would have secured at least 3 per cent, probably 3.5 per cent, of the votes cast nationally - twice what the preElection polls had suggested. It would seem that about half of those intending to vote for Sinn Fein had been reluctant to admit this.
Between April 1998 and April 2000 those saying they would support a Sinn Fein candidate oscillated between 3 and 4 per cent. And by last June this proportion had risen to 5 per cent, where it remained in the September poll. But by this January Sinn Fein support recorded by the MRBI poll had risen to 5.8 per cent.
In assessing the size of the Sinn Fein vote, this figure would suggest that in an election within the next year, three considerations need to be borne in mind.
First of all, while reluctance to admit to pollsters an intention to vote for Sinn Fein candidates has presumably diminished during the past four years, it would be surprising if it had disappeared altogether. Second, given the steady rise in support for this party over the last several years, allowance must be made for the possibility that this support may rise further between now and election day - whenever that may be.
But, third, these two factors will be at least partly offset by the fact that Sinn Fein support is concentrated in the under35 group - especially those under 25. The polls show that the proportion of those under 25 saying they will vote for Sinn Fein is almost twice as great as in the 2534 age group and over three times higher than among older age groups.
But election day turnout among the 1824 age group has for a long time been only a fraction of that among older age groups - although possibly those young people intending to vote for Sinn Fein candidates may be more likely than other young people to vote.
Making allowance for all three of these factors, it seems to me that Sinn Fein support in the next election may be at least 50 per cent higher than in 1997, possibly twice as high. That is in line with the TG4 poll result in Dublin South West showing 18 per cent of the constituency vote for Sinn Fein - twice the vote of 9 per cent there in 1997.
What would be the implications at national level of a doubling of Sinn Fein's 1997 vote to something like 6 to 7 per cent? In terms of Dail seats the implications are less dramatic than might be thought.
First of all, a significant share of this Sinn Fein support at national level will consist of wasted votes.
Both Clann na Poblachta in 1948 and the Progressive Democrats in 1989 secured shares of the national vote that seemed to entitle them to 20 Dail seats. But as so many of their votes around the country were wasted through being too few to win a seat, both parties in their first outings secured just 10 seats each. Sinn Fein would be lucky to get more than five seats - and even five could prove to be beyond their reach. In addition to the Cavan Monaghan seat they hold, most likely gains would be in Dublin South West, Kerry North, Louth, and Sligo Leitrim (although there Labour's Declan Bree might be more likely to take a Fianna Fail seat. In Louth Labour's seat could be most at risk to Sinn Fein.
Less likely SF gains could be in Donegal North East, (at the expense of Independent Fianna Fail candidate Harry Blaney), Dublin Central or Dublin North East. One cannot, of course, totally exclude a seat being won by Sinn Fein in some other constituency where their vote in 1997 was 5 per cent or less - or even in ones that they did not contest in 1997. But Sinn Fein gains in such seats seem very improbable.
What are the political implications of the presence in the next Dail of around five Sinn Fein deputies?
In an Irish government that is responsible for the security of the State, Sinn Fein involvement would, of course, be ruled out unless their arms had been permanently put out of use by then - and, I believe, also unless IRA involvement in punishment beatings and vigilante activities both in the North and here had ceased.
But even if all that was to happen between now and the election, it is far from clear that Sinn Fein would wish to join a coalition government at this point. If Sinn Fein were to find after the election that their votes could determine which of several party leaders should be elected as Taoiseach, they might well prefer to support one or other of the potential coalition leaders from outside, rather than to participate within either alternative government.
However, any government whose continued existence depended upon Sinn Fein support from outside would be in a very uncomfortable situation, and might not last its full term, as happened to Fianna Fail in November 1982 when Sinn Fein the Workers Party withdrew its support from Charles Haughey's Fianna Fail government.
There is, moreover, every indication that support from Independents, will be necessary to form a government after the next election. Polls have recently been showing an increase of two-thirds since 1997 in the proportion of people stating an intention to vote for Independent candidates.
Allowing, on the one hand, that polls tend to understate votes for Independents by about a third, and on the other hand that three-fifths of votes cast for Independent candidates are wasted because they fail to elect an Independent, it seems that something like 10 Independents may be elected next time, and we are also likely to see several Green Party members in the next Dail as in the present one.
With something like 17 deputies, representing 10 per cent of Dail membership, thus likely to be drawn from outside the parties that have so far taken part in government, the task of creating a stable administration after the next election will be a formidable one.