SINN FÉIN has overtaken both Fianna Fáil and the Labour Party to become the second largest party in the State, according to the latest Irish Times/IpsosMRBI opinion poll.
The finding has the potential to reshape the political landscape once again and demonstrates that those shifts in allegiance that marked the general election campaign remain active. The sudden surge in support for Sinn Féin is almost certainly linked to the presidential election campaign and the high-profile candidature of Martin McGuinness. But the party’s consistent emphasis on unemployment, falling living standards and cuts in services are likely to have played a significant role too.
A striking aspect of the poll is that while satisfaction with the Government has dipped by only one point since last July, to 36 per cent, Sinn Féin has fashioned its remarkable advance, from 10 to 18 per cent of the popular vote, at the expense of all its major competitors. Fine Gael dropped by three points to 35 per cent; Fianna Fáil and the Labour Party each shed two points to 16 per cent and Independents gave up two points to 12 per cent.
Public satisfaction with party leaders has shown greater volatility. Enda Kenny retains a commanding lead at 51 per cent, down two points; Eamon Gilmore has dropped two points to 42 per cent; Gerry Adams gained five points to 36 per cent and Micheál Martin has dropped nine points to 28 per cent. Satisfaction with Green Party leader Eamon Ryan remained unchanged at 16 per cent.
The fall in Mr Martin’s satisfaction rating is probably linked to his poor handling of the presidential election process; the decision not to nominate a Fianna Fáil candidate and Sinn Féin’s tactical success in doing so. Those issues also contributed to Mr Adams’s improved performance. Whatever about the underlying causes, Sinn Féin’s accelerated growth poses tantalising questions for the presidential election campaign. Should Fianna Fáil throw its support behind Seán Gallagher in an attempt to regain momentum and the presidency at second hand? And, in a blocking attempt, would Sinn Féin direct its members on the transfer of critical McGuinness votes? Such considerations could decide the outcome of the election and the future vibrancy of Fianna Fáil.
It would be wrong to attribute Sinn Féin’s striking advance solely to Mr McGuinness, even though his candidature has facilitated a shift in the public’s perception towards the party. It has now moved into third place in Dublin, behind Fine Gael and the Labour Party; is comfortably ahead of both the Labour Party and Fianna Fail in Leinster and in Connacht Ulster and trails Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in Munster.
An analysis of this new support shows it to be predominantly male, single and from age groups ranging from 25 to 49 years. These categories have been seriously affected by unemployment and the economic downturn. Having abandoned Fianna Fáil in the general election for Fine Gael and the Labour Party, this chunk of voters is looking for an alternative.