SPONTANEITY IS not usually a feature of Chinese politics, and certainly not of its street politics. And the periodic upsurges of nationalist, anti-Japanese feeling are usually carefully staged or gently encouraged by the country’s Communist Party leadership, or one faction in it, to strengthen an internal political agenda or dynamic, or distract from domestic woes.
As the country begins a period of transition in its leadership it will not be surprising then if today’s anniversary of Japan’s 1931 occupation of parts of mainland China, often a date for nationalist sounding-off, sees yet more of the protests, some violent, that spread through some 50 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Qingdao last weekend against Japan’s assertion of ownership of a small group of uninhabited islets in the East China Sea. The issue is dear to the hearts of the generals, and analysts suggest the protests may have been encouraged by either incoming leader Xi Jinping or departing president Hu Jintao to bolster their respective positions in the army. Japan is also in pre-election mode.
These long-disputed islands, in an area containing potentially large gas reserves, are known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, and have been controlled by the former for over a century. The new level of mutual public acrimony, public protests and a flurry of gunboat diplomacy bubbled up over the last few weeks after deliberately provocative landings by activists from both countries prompted the Japanese government to buy the islands for the state from their private owner.
Some major Japanese brand-name firms yesterday announced temporary factory shutdowns in China and urged expatriates to stay indoors following physical attacks on Japanese businesses and calls for boycotts over the weekend. Although the Chinese have promised to protect property and citizens, editorials have expressed some sympathy for the protesters: “No one would doubt the pulses of patriotic fervour when the motherland is bullied,” the party’s People’s Daily said.
The two countries did $345 billion in mutual trade last year and although there have been calls for trade sanctions, it is hard to believe that the Chinese authorities will allow the dispute to be ratcheted up that far. But, “coincidentally” Tokyo and the US yesterday also announced that the two countries have agreed to locate a second missile defence radar system on Japanese territory to protect against a North Korean ballistic missile threat. Neither China nor Japan, it seems, wants to lower the temperature just yet.