Irish voters would refuse to ratify the proposed EU constitution if a referendum were held on the issue at this time, according to the latest Irish Times/TNSmrbi opinion poll. The findings of the survey should cause serious concern to the Government.
The Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, would be wise to opt for "a period of reflection", rather than expend political capital on the uncertainty of the ratification process, when he attends the European Council meeting later this week.
The shock rejection of the treaty by France and the Netherlands has created a political earthquake in the EU and thrown the ratification process off course. While nine countries, representing half of the EU population, have endorsed it, Spain is the only country to do so by referendum. The British government has since decided to postpone its plebiscite, while Luxembourg and Denmark are scheduled to hold referendums in July and September.
Mr Ahern has consistently spoken in favour of holding a referendum in Ireland, but no date has been set. The results of this poll should diminish the Government's appetite to go before the electorate.
The indications here, as in France, are that voters would relish the opportunity to give the Government a bloody nose. A majority believe a referendum should be held but voters are also determined to reject the draft treaty, with 35 per cent opposed and 30 per cent in favour.
Although the terms of the constitution were negotiated during Ireland's presidency of the EU, 60 per cent of those questioned were only "vaguely aware" or had no understanding of the issues involved.
Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats are the only parties with majorities in favour of the constitution. There is two-to-one opposition to it in Sinn Féin and the Green Party. The Government may take some comfort from the very large "undecided" vote of 35 per cent.
The EU heads of government should pause the ratification process this week and nominate a high-level group to address the varying - and sometimes conflicting - concerns of citizens that were reflected in the French and Dutch referendums. Public unease over the "democratic deficit" has become well established and, in an enlarged Europe, it is vital that the views of ordinary people are taken into account.
A lack of public information and political apathy led to the defeat of the first Nice Treaty referendum in 2001. That situation was reversed in the following year as a result of intensive publicity and political campaigns. The Government would appear to be heading into another EU referendum defeat.
At a minimum, it must put in place an effective, long-term programme of education about what, precisely, the EU constitution will mean to Irish people. The present European leadership is incapable of engendering a belief in the mutual future enshrined in the EU treaties and the people of Europe are responding accordingly.