Revelations at the Moriarty and Flood tribunals concerning Fianna Fail ministers, further disclosures in the press and the political handling of these matters, have had a dramatic effect on popular support for the minority Coalition Government. In the five months since the last Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll was held, the Government's satisfaction rating has plummeted. It now stands at 52 per cent, 16 points down on last October and 21 points shy of the extraordinary level secured in the aftermath of the Belfast Agreement last April.
Many factors have gone into fashioning these disappointing results for the Government and for Fianna Fail. Disclosures concerning the lifestyle of former Taoiseach, Mr Charles Haughey, and the manner in which it was sustained and funded were probably the most potent element. But allegations concerning Ireland's EU Commissioner, Mr Padraig Flynn, and the former Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Ray Burke, also contributed, as did the disclosure that the Fianna Fail Party had benefited to the tune of £10,500 from the funds of a passport-for-sale applicant. The reluctance of the main Government party and the Taoiseach to face up to these unsavoury matters and to take decisive action against those implicated has added to its woes.
The public perception that corruption still exists within politics and that the Revenue Commissioners and the Garda should take action on foot of tribunal recommendations makes it imperative that the Flood tribunal completes its work effectively and thoroughly. The issues at stake are so great that lawyers' wrangling must not be allowed to stand in the way of a full exposition of the facts.
It will come as small consolation to Fianna Fail to realise that things might have been worse. Field work for the opinion poll was completed before Eurostat threw the Government's regionalisation plans into disarray and exposed it to public criticism for its strategic approach. On the other side of the coin, the sudden growth in support for Fine Gael may not be sustained. Opinion sampling took place within ten days of that party's ardfheis and at a time when it was leading the charge against the Government in the Dail.
The Labour Party will be somewhat disappointed over not having made more of an impact, particularly in the aftermath of its amalgamation with Democratic Left. The poll offers some consolation to the Progressive Democrats. Support for the party jumped from two to four per cent as it sought to exert its influence on Fianna Fail in pursuit of high standards in government. The fortunes of the Green Party remained unaltered. Sinn Fein suffered from the difficulties being experienced in Northern Ireland and the apparent intransigence of the IRA in relation to arms decommissioning. Its support shrank to a pre-Belfast Agreement level, at two per cent.
While support for the Coalition Government has been seriously eroded, and a small majority of respondents favour holding a general election on foot of tribunal findings, there is no certainty that a change of government would result. Satisfaction with the Government stands at a healthy 52 per cent. And, in spite of an 11 point fall, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, wins the party leaders' beauty contest by a huge margin. The misdeeds of Fianna Fail have not rubbed off to any significant extent on the party leader and he has attracted a satisfaction rating of 70 per cent. Approval of the Tanaiste increased slightly during the period, in line with support for the Progressive Democrats. The Labour Party leader, Mr Quinn, saw his satisfaction rating grow by four points to 55 per cent, while approval for the Fine Gael leader, Mr Bruton, remained unchanged at 47 per cent.
The relative calm that has developed in domestic politics in recent days, as negotiations on CAP and EU structural funding get underway in Brussels and the North moved towards a time of critical negotiations, will give the political parties the time and space to absorb the implications of this survey.