Running for the Republicans

When Senator John McCain ran against George Bush for the Republican presidential nomination back in 2000 his campaign pitch framed…

When Senator John McCain ran against George Bush for the Republican presidential nomination back in 2000 his campaign pitch framed him as the outsider, the maverick whose perceived centrist position on many issues made him appealing to moderate Democrats. In the end, however, the conservative base of the Republican Party asserted itself and the rest, as they say, is history.

With his formal return to the presidential fray on Wednesday night - technically a "pre-announcement", in the fashion of the day - Mr McCain faces a very different race. He is no longer the frontrunner and must now woo back party activists from the former mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani, who is firmly to his left. Yet a Washington Post-ABC News poll this week showed that Mr Giuliani, also the clear favourite to defeat any Democrat, has expanded his advantage over Mr McCain and holds a two to one lead among Republicans. This triples the margin of a month ago.

According to the pollsters, the principal reason is a shift among white evangelical Protestants who now clearly favour Mr Giuliani over Mr McCain. Yet Mr Giuliani supports abortion rights - he "hates" abortion but defends women's right to choose - gay rights, and gun control, all stances that are anathema to conservatives, not to mention his three marriages.

He is hugely regarded for his handling of the aftermath of 9/11 and seen as someone who can beat Democrats, both perceptions that are currently overwhelming any unease about his liberal politics. But some polls show a high degree of ignorance of his social policies. And surveys in which voters are prodded with information about candidates, known as "push polls", show that once his liberalism is pointed out he is vulnerable to sharp drops in support. The forthcoming campaign will do precisely that.

READ MORE

Fearful that a real candidate of the right may yet emerge - former speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has been mentioned - both Mr Giuliani and Mr McCain have in recent days been genuflecting to the conservatives. Mr Giuliani has promised to appoint "strict-constructionist" judges if elected, code for judges who would be prepared to overturn the key abortion decision of Roe v Wade. Mr McCain, who once described leading evangelists the Revs Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson, as "agents of intolerance", and has opposed a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, last month explicitly called for the repeal of Roe v Wade. Despite his tack to the right, however, he is also under fire on his home turf of Arizona from activists angry at his liberalism.

And their chief rival at present, former Massachusetts governor and Mormon Mitt Romney, is also seen as suspiciously liberal. Which, despite a number of other lesser-known possibles, makes for a curiously stilted election.

There is much talk now of a vacuum on the right which will fuel the search for a Gingrich-like option. It is a prospect likely to delight Democrats.