ANALYSIS:THE LOCAL and European elections in June saw Fianna Fáil slump to the worst result in the party's history and since then things have only got worse, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
The satisfaction rating of the Government is now just a paltry 11 per cent. Taoiseach Brian Cowen’s rating has dropped to just 15 per cent and the Fianna Fáil core vote has slipped to just 16 per cent, a record low since polling began.
With a core vote of just 16 per cent Fianna Fáil is not only trailing far behind Fine Gael but it has fallen into third place behind the Labour Party.
With 75 per cent of voters saying they now want to see a change of government, the capacity of the Coalition to pursue its economic policies for the remainder of its term of office in these very difficult times must be open to question.
The desire for a change of government is very strong among the supporters of all parties except Fianna Fáil. Even among Fianna Fáil supporters, a substantial
minority of 42 per cent would like to see a change, with 52 per cent preferring the Coalition to continue.
Among supporters of the junior Coalition party, the Greens, the mood is very different, with 74 per cent saying they want change.
A breakdown of the poll figures show that Dublin is easily the worst region of the country for Fianna Fáil, with a core vote of just 11 per cent. Fianna Fáil is now well behind Labour and Fine Gael in Dublin and has even slipped behind Sinn Féin.
Things are a bit better in the rest of the country, with the party on 17 per cent in the rest of Leinster, 18 per cent in Munster and 22 per cent in Connacht Ulster.
Across the age groups, Fianna Fáil does worst among the 35 to 49 year olds, where its vote is just 12 per cent. It does a bit better among other age categories but it is only among the over-65s that it breaks the 20 per cent barrier, coming in with a support level of 25 per cent.
In terms of social class, Fianna Fáil does best among farmers, where it gets 25 per cent, and among the best-off AB social category, where it is on 21 per cent. Among all other social classes, its share of the vote has dropped well below 20 per cent, with its worse score coming from the poorest DE category.
The Fine Gael core vote has slipped marginally since the last poll, but it remains ahead of Fianna Fáil among all age groups and across all regions and social classes.
In Dublin, Fine Gael is on 24 per cent of the vote, in the rest of Leinster it is on 29 per cent and in Connacht Ulster it is on 32 per cent. Munster is the weakest region for the country, with the party on just 21 per cent.
In age terms, Fine Gael does best among the over 65s, followed by the 50 to 64 age group, with it weakest category the 25 to 34 age group. In social terms the party is strongest among farmers, where it scores 43 per cent. Its next strongest category is the best-off AB voters, but it beats Fianna Fáil in every social category, including the DE social group where was traditionally weakest.
Labour has pulled ahead of Fianna Fáil in terms of core vote for the first time in a TNS mrbi poll, with 18 per cent of the vote. In Dublin, the party comes in first place on 25 per cent, marginally ahead of Fine Gael. It is on 18 per cent of the vote in Munster, 17 per cent in the rest of Leinster and 8 per cent in Connacht-Ulster.
In age terms Labour is strongest in the 35 to 49 age group and weakest in the 18 to 24 age group. Its support is evenly spread across the other age groups. In class terms the party’s vote is now evenly spread across all categories, with its weakest group being the poorest DE social category.
The Green Party support is at the same level as the last poll. It is a little stronger in Dublin than the rest of the country but its vote is spread dangerously thin and it could face a total wipeout in terms of Dáil seats if there was an election in the near future.
Sinn Féin is strongest in Dublin at 12 per cent and the party will take a lot of satisfaction from having passed out Fianna Fáil. Its next best region is Connacht Ulster where it is on 9 per cent, followed by Munster at 8 per cent and the rest of Leinster at 7 per cent.
In class terms the party’s vote is heavily concentrated among C2 and DE voters, with very little support among higher earners. In age terms it does best among 18 to 24-year-olds, where it gets as much support as the Labour Party.
The level of support for Independents and Others has increased since May, with Dublin and Munster providing the strongest regions.
Stephen Collins is Political Editor