The possibility that Spain and Morocco could go to war over a tiny, uninhabited rock outcrop that hardly merits the title island seems far-fetched. However, serious conflict came perilously close this week when Spain dispatched an elite commando unit to reclaim the Isla de Perejil, on which Moroccan forces raised their flag a week earlier.
Had there been any casualties in this operation, the crisis might well have escalated out of control. Spanish-Moroccan relations have been deteriorating seriously for almost a year. This week's events leave them at their lowest point since the Franco dictatorship.
Sovereignty over the Isla de Perejil - Parsley Island - has been a matter of tacit dispute between the two countries since Spain relinquished its Protectorate in northern Morocco in 1956. But it was never a source of serious tension until now. The terms of Moroccan independence allowed Spain to retain enclaves it had held before the Protectorate came into existence. Thus the ports of Ceuta and Melilla are internationally recognised as Spanish to this day, though Rabat would like to renegotiate their status.
The reasons Morocco "invaded" the island last week can only be guessed at. It may be that they were simply checking for drug and human traffickers, as they have claimed, and that their presence coincided with a Civil Guard patrol of its waters. Or it may be that they were seeking to provoke a Spanish reaction, and force an international debate over the status of Ceuta and Melilla, where comparison with Spain's attitude to Gibraltar irritates Madrid but has a validity nonetheless.
Prime Minister Aznar's government is highly sensitive on issues of sovereignty, and was bound to make a strong response to Morocco's occupation. However, it would have done better to allow EU diplomacy to resolve the conflict, rather than taking the drastic step of sending in the marines. The stakes have now been raised to very dangerous levels, and great skill will be needed to placate national pride on both sides of the straits of Gibraltar.