Just because FF has always been a big national player doesn’t mean it always will be
A THURSDAY between February 24th and March 10th, 2011, now appears the most likely date of our general election. With more than 100 days of campaigning left between now and those potential dates, this is set to be one of the longest and most dramatic election campaigns in a long time.
This week saw the publication of the four-year fiscal plan. Next week will be dominated by the publication of the loan agreement with the IMF-EU-ECB. The following week will be dominated by the budget. After that, Fianna Fáil is likely to turn to party business.
There are three sets of views on the leadership question within the parliamentary party. A minority remains loyal to Brian Cowen and feels he is entitled to have the electorate decide his fate. A clear majority of TDs would prefer to fight the election with a new leader.
The difficulty is that this majority is further divided between those fatalistic souls who feel the party is doomed and they can do nothing about it and more assertive souls who see some prospect of at least containing the seat haemorrhage if Cowen is replaced.
When I was invited to make a presentation to Fianna Fáil’s backbench Lemass group a month ago, I tried to give a blunt assessment of how stark things were for their party.
I told them that when they returned to their constituencies, they should sit down and frankly discuss with wives, husbands or partners how they would psychologically, financially and politically cope with losing their Dáil seats. That was the fate I then saw awaiting over half of them.
I set out how, having reviewed all polling data published in the previous 18 months, mapped the 2007 local election results on to Dáil constituencies, assessed the impact of boundary redraws, allowed for incumbent retirements and looked at likely candidate line-ups, I had concluded that even with a fair wind at its back Fianna Fáil could not win more than 50 seats in an election called any time soon.
At that stage I assessed Fianna Fáil’s national support at 24 per cent – well below the tipping point where the party would lose the seat bonus it achieved by virtue of its size in previous contests. I also warned them however that there was no reason to assume that Fianna Fáil’s vote share couldn’t decrease further.
If anything I felt the party was complacent about its survival prospects and reminded them of Frank Flannery’s blunt warning to Fine Gael after the 2002 general election about how wrong it was to assume that if the party had always been a large feature of national life, it would continue to be so. It risked suffering the same fate as the Irish Press and other supposed national institutions.
Things have deteriorated further for Fianna Fáil in the intervening five weeks. In late October, a Red C poll showed its support falling to 18 per cent and another Red C poll last weekend showed it as low as 17 per cent.
Public anger at the party has intensified in recent weeks. A hundred days is an eternity in modern Irish politics but, as of now, it is hard to see a realistic scenario where Fianna Fáil could win more than 40 seats. Something like 35 seats is more likely.
The result for the party in Donegal South West yesterday only serves to reiterate how far its support has fallen.
Responsibility for the economic collapse will be the central issue in this election. Capacity to communicate with the electorate will matter more than ever.
A humble, conciliatory, non- partisan posture will be required from the Fianna Fáil leadership if it is to contain the slide between now and polling day. Brian Cowen is not therefore the best person to lead Fianna Fáil in this electoral fight for its survival.
There can be no doubt that while Fianna Fáil’s situation is grave and it will have a historically bad election, the party would do better – perhaps significantly – under a new leader.
If he so chooses, Cowen could make things very difficult for his party by refusing to go. As the man in situ he has some cards to play, not least reminding TDs that even if he is not party leader, he would probably have to stay as caretaker Taoiseach until the election is over as the Greens are unlikely to support anyone else in the post.
On balance I think there will be a leadership change. Brian Lenihan, Micheál Martin, Dermot Ahern and Mary Hanafin are the obvious contenders, with it ultimately coming down to a two- way fight involving either Martin or Hanafin versus Lenihan.
It is my guess that if there is to be a heave against Brian Cowen, or a leader change without a heave, it will come in the Dáil the week after the budget, perhaps at the parliamentary party meeting on Tuesday, December 14th.
A consensus may then emerge around a successor although most deputies feel an actual contest is still desirable.
Some, including a number of backbench Fianna Fáil dissidents, have suggested that parliamentary party discussions about the leadership should wait until the new year. However, if there is to be a new leader, it is best done before Christmas.
He or she will need the benefit of the recess to prepare the party for the intensive phase of electioneering which will inevitably begin as soon as the Dáil returns in mid January.
Once the new year comes, all members of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party would be better off concentrating on getting the Finance Bill passed and focusing on their local campaigning effort than being holed up in parliamentary party rooms debating and deciding on the leadership issue.