The incoming taoiseach will find that selecting a cabinet requires a delicate political skill, writes Noel Whelan
ON WEDNESDAY evening when Brian Cowen returns to the Dáil having received the Taoiseach's seal of office, he will have to announce his first decision - the names of his cabinet ministers.
In the days after he was elected Fianna Fáil leader-designate media speculation raged about the likely make-up of the new cabinet, but Cowen skilfully dampened it down by telling journalists it was pointless because nobody would know his decision until just before it was announced.
He proved as good as his word; even his most senior colleagues and advisers have no idea of the cabinet line-up.
Albert Reynolds famously decamped to a hotel the weekend before announcing his first cabinet to avoid the feverish speculation and those lobbying for position.
Cowen is unlikely to take such a drastic step. He's known as a man who makes up his own mind and colleagues will appreciate that seeking to influence him is likely to prove counterproductive.
Cowen may seek a middle course between Reynolds' foolhardy ministerial cull in 1992 and the frustrating caution which characterised Bertie Ahern's Cabinet selections. The big question for Cowen is how many new ministers to promote. The best answer may lie between two and four.
Ahern's resignation creates one vacancy. If Cowen does not prove able to make at least one demotion, then it will be difficult for him to claim he has asserted his authority.
Sacking three Ministers would create space to promote four new people. Sacking more would risk disturbing the calm consensus in the parliamentary party which facilitated Cowen's unanimous election to the leadership.
The changing economic climate obviously predominates. Cowen must select a successor as Minister for Finance who not only has the necessary ability but also the stubbornness to stand up to ministerial colleagues.
It must be someone with enough self-confidence to withstand unpopularity with the electorate but whose arrogance or zeal will not undermine the stability of the Government.
Coalition considerations will also affect Cowen's choice. The two Green Party Ministers are in the departments most relevant to their policy priorities and have been there for only 11 months. So they are unlikely to be moved.
Mary Harney has been in health almost four years so her position is different.
Even if all was well in the health services, the portfolio would be among the top four ministries with finance, foreign affairs and justice.
At a time when health is by far the most sensitive political issue, the public finances are tight and reform of public services is a priority, the choice of minister for health is even more crucial.
No taoiseach deciding on his cabinet should be expected to operate on the presumption that the current Minister for Health must stay in situ. It may be that having explored the options Cowen will conclude that Harney should be left there.
Cowen can win the support of middle-class Dublin and its settled suburbs by earning their respect as a competent economic manager.
Holding onto the blue collar Dublin voters for whom Ahern had particular appeal will be more difficult. Fianna Fáil attracts strong support from those in the capital employed in traditional manufacturing industries, in retail and other service industries, in the lower echelons of the Civil Service and in public sector companies. Cowen cannot take their support for granted.
At a time when securing its appeal in north Dublin will be particularly important for Fianna Fáil, that part of the city is set to be dramatically under-represented in cabinet.
With Ahern gone, Brian Lenihan will be the only Minister north of the Liffey and he is barely north of it.
Political cabinet-making requires delicate skill. This week Cowen will learn how lonely leadership can be.