It would be premature to say that the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians is back on track after yesterday's meeting between Mr Benjamin Netanyahu and Mr Yasser Arafat. But at least it marks the beginning of a dialogue of which many people had despaired after the recent Israeli elections. The commitments to continue the process and implement what has already been agreed are general and hedged with qualifications on the Israeli side; after this symbolic opening all will depend on how it is followed up. The latest dramatic events elsewhere in the region are certain to affect the pace and content of the Israeli Palestinian process.
Mr Netanyahu has taken some months to summon the political will for this meeting, having sworn before the elections that he would never agree to it. The fact that he has now done so underlines how few options any Israeli prime minister has in dealing with the Palestinian question other than to treat Mr Arafat as an indispensable negotiating partner. A rejectionist return to all-out confrontation would force Mr Arafat to revert to the popular mobilisation of recent weeks as a protest against delays in implementing the interim agreement and the sanctioning of fresh Israeli, settlement activity in the occupied territories. The alternative for Mr Netanyahu will involve him testing whether the peace process can be enclosed within its interim status.
In that case autonomy, not independence, would be the governing principle of future relations between Israel and the Palestinians. It would represent a substantial victory for Mr Netanyahu were he to succeed in pulling it off; but the more he was successful in that respect the more he would undermine his Palestinian interlocutors, represented by Mr Arafat. This is a very risky strategy for all concerned. Yesterday's meeting set up a steering committee to continue negotiations. It is obvious that it will have to cover ground already trodden, such as the position of Israeli troops in Hebron (from which they are committed to withdraw) if Mr Netanyahu is to be convinced to pursue the process he has so substantially rejected up to now.
It was clear last evening that he is most concerned politically to protect his flank against criticism from the right wing rejectionists who feel betrayed by his meeting with Mr Arafat. He will have his work cut out. He would be well advised to make peace with another wing of his party, represented by his foreign minister, Mr Levy, who will meet the Tanaiste, Mr Spring, this evening, in advance of the informal session of European Union foreign ministers in Tralee at the weekend. Mr Levy has had far less difficulty in striking up a good relationship with Mr Arafat. He has been much more ready to recognise that the Palestinian leader is the only real negotiating partner Israel has.
Recent signs of dissatisfaction with Mr Netanyahu's indecisive leadership among the rank and file of his Likud Party are a reminder that it is not monolithically opposed to a lasting settlement with the Palestinians. There are many on Mr Arafat's side who recognise that it may be best to reach agreement with their most obdurate opponents, in the belief that this would be the best guarantee of success. If yesterday's meeting proves the beginning of such a process it would be historic; alas, it is much too soon to say so.