After two weeks of canvassing, there have been no significant shifts in the polls, writes NOEL WHELAN
THE CURRENT election campaign has been dull and is having no substantial impact on the voters. This reality is reflected in this weekend's Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll.
It is actually extraordinary that the standing of the parties remains essentially unaltered after a full two weeks of a supposedly full-blooded campaign in local, European and byelections. There are no shifts of statistical significance in this poll.
Fianna Fáil support is measured at one percentage point lower than it was a fortnight ago, leaving it stuck at a precariously low level. While the approval ratings for both the Taoiseach and the Government have nudged up very slightly, they also remain very low. There is nothing of news value in either finding.
Fine Gael are down two percentage points, but are still four points up on where they were in February. Labour was down three points on May 13th and has regained that ground. This poll merely confirms what the last four polls have shown: as Fianna Fáil plummets, both Fine Gael and Labour are at historically high levels and some of those moving from the Government are still unsure as to which of the Opposition parties they should opt for.
The most interesting talking point from this weekend’s poll is that Fianna Fáil is measured in third place. This is even the case where voters are asked to indicate local election voting intentions, although Labour will not feature on the ballot paper in many local electoral areas.
In 2004, Fianna Fáil won three times as many seats on city and county councils as Labour, so the latter cannot therefore push Fianna Fáil into third place in the locals. Similarly, the Labour Party is particularly weak in the North and West constituency and that will drag down their vote share so they will also be in third place in the European elections.
On the ground, there is a sense that this is a campaign going through the motions. Even the postering, intense as it may seem to those who resent the democratic process encroaching on their local lamp posts, has not been nearly as prolific as in 2004.
General electioneering in this country is increasingly conducted by personalised campaign teams for sitting TDs or other Dáil challengers.
The dual mandate ban which has been in place since 2004 means that sitting Oireachtas members cannot contest local elections.
Whereas in 2004, many TDs and Senators engaged intensely in the local elections to ensure that family members or other surrogates were elected to succeed them, this time they appear to have been taking a more backseat role. In the case of Fianna Fáil, deputies’ antagonism towards the Government gives them additional motivation to remain somewhat disengaged from the local contest.
The subdued nature of this campaign may reflect the recessionary times which mean that candidates and parties have considerably less resources than they had five years ago. It may also of course be due to the fact that the largest political organisation in the country is running a relatively muted campaign.
The campaign has also been quiet from the media’s perspective. There have been no “clear the front page” moments in this campaign. Indeed, since the declaration of George Lee’s candidature, there have been no moments which have merited re-ordering the news agenda on any given day.
The newspapers and broadcasters have been dutifully giving over the requisite pages and airtime to constituency profiles, canvass diaries and even detailing what should constitute the campaign issues. However, they have not been provided with anything of much interest to cover. The usual rounds of candidate debates on early morning, mid-morning and late-night radio have not shifted ground either.
Second order elections always lack the intensity of a general election contest, but this campaign has even lacked some of the drama and excitement of previous local and European election contests. This weekend five years ago, we could enjoy coverage of the explosion and subsequent implosion of Royston Brady’s campaign and the colourful clashes between Mairéad McGuinness and Avril Doyle. This time around, low-level sniping between Avril Doyle and Nessa Childers in Ireland East is all we have to amuse us.
The biggest news story in the last fortnight has been the Ryan commission report into child abuse in various institutions. It has penetrated the public consciousness in a manner in which few issues have done in recent years.
The ensuing controversy over the religious orders’ contribution to the redress fund has generated much coverage, but does not appear to have impacted on the election campaign. If it had, we would have seen it reflected in a further decline in the Government’s popularity or a more acute drop in Fianna Fáil support.
The Government was, again, behind the curve in its response, but the stronger stance taken by the Taoiseach since Tuesday night may have blunted any direct political impact which the matter might have had. The issues raised by the Ryan report are in any case more fundamental than any particular electoral cycle.
Much of the electorate made up its mind about this contest before the campaign proper began. The polling data suggests that the dominant voter concerns are the economic crisis and the Government handling of and/or responsibility for it.
While the electioneering of individual candidates may have impacted on their own vote share, nothing about the conduct of the various party campaigns will have changed voter attitude on the big national issue.
The five days left to polling day include a sunny bank holiday weekend, so there is unlikely to be much movement in this campaign in the time remaining.
If this and the previous TNS mrbi poll are accurately measuring Fianna Fáil’s level of support, then next weekend will be a very dark one indeed for the party and its leader.