Reinstated for another five years as leader of the Zanu-PF party, Mr Robert Mugabe warned at its weekend rally against the endemic factionalism which is tearing it apart. This is largely to do with his own expected departure, whenever it occurs, as different groups line up to replace him. The party remains dominant in Zimbabwe despite being forced by last year’s violent elections to share power with the Movement for Democratic Change led by Mr Morgan Tsvangirai. But Mr Mugabe senses that these divisions with Zanu-PF could herald its disintegration when he goes.
Compared to its truly awful condition during those elections, when inflation was running at 30 million per cent, unemployment was put at 70 per cent, four million had emigrated to South Africa and agriculture had collapsed, the country has made considerable progress.
The humanitarian crisis has eased, economic growth next year is expected to be about 7 per cent and agricultural exports have resumed. Mr Tsvangirai’s party decided on power-sharing to help rescue Zimbabwe from its condition as a failed state. This limited progress has vindicated its move, despite continuing repression against its cadres and Zanu-PF’s concentration of security, judicial and media powers.
External political and diplomatic circumstances have also changed somewhat for the better since last year. Mr Mugabe’s dictatorial rule was bizarrely indulged by South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki during his time in office. His successor Mr Jacob Zuma is much less tolerant and has insisted on greater adherence to the power-sharing deal in return for giving its support to eased international sanctions. While many of these remain in place there is now a greater awareness of how their relaxation can be managed constructively in the wider interests of the Zimbabwean people.
The European Union, the UK and the US are all involved in this process, while other African states have been influenced by South Africa’s more critical attitude.
Zimbabwe’s condition will remain deeply troubled so long as Mr Mugabe remains in power. Aged 85 he has been leader of Zanu-PF for 35 years, but is unlikely to stay on for this full term. His absolute control over the party was shattered by last year’s destabilising polls and is now reinforced by factionalising over the succession. Mr Tsvangirai’s party and its international supporters must play their cards with skill from what remains a relatively weak position if they are to make decisive advances when Mr Mugabe finally departs.