Mistakes amid a spate of election jitters

NERVOUS fingers on electoral buzzers were probably to blame for this week's unforced errors by Fianna Fail and Fine Gael

NERVOUS fingers on electoral buzzers were probably to blame for this week's unforced errors by Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. Some Fianna Failers have always felt uneasy, with ethical issues. Almost as uneasy, it used to be said, as some Fine Gaelers were when it came to sex.

FF's susceptibility may explain why, although Bertie Ahern was among the first to insist on a full-scale inquiry into the Dunnes Stores/Lowry' affair, Willie O'Dea and others were nagged by fears of a catch.

The rumours of payments to a former FF minister had persisted since the affair came to light. What if the tribunal uncovered the evidence and they turned out to be true? Catch 22.

Then there was the conviction of a county councillor from Clare on several fraud charges. He had resigned from the council and the party one the spot, but the timing couldn't have been worse.

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Mr Ahern clearly felt the party should take another step away from its murky past. He proposed a commission on ethical affairs, an ombudsman to see that TDs and senators obeyed the rules, and a code for members of FF's parliamentary party.

Great stuff. Except that the public offices commission already exists and the Ombudsman is one of its members. Its function - overseeing the affairs of TDs, senators and some public servants was agreed by the Oireachtas. It has been in place for a year.

Fine Gael's embarrassment was caused by the release of information intended to reassure leaders of the Federation of Group Water Schemes on the funding of rural schemes. It did nothing of the sort.

The message that the party's western deputies understood the federation's case - for the removal of disparities with urban schemes - was quickly turned on its head.

The federation's leaders claimed that, far from being understood, the west had been betrayed, sacrificed, left to the tender mercy of Brendan Howlin.

Farmers' leaders, ever ready to witness the Judas kiss, chimed in. The west is their garden of Gethsemane and they are determined that neither betrayal nor martyrdom will go unnoticed.

Commentators represented the whole thing as a split in the coalition, which John Bruton strongly denied. Or yet another election issue to be added to the demands of every interest group in the State.

Whether political ethics - or sleaze - becomes an issue may well depend on the tribunal, when it ends and what it finds. At most, the water charges will be of local concern.

But a book, a television programme and a ministerial speech contributed to the debate on crime, which will be an issue - however long it takes John Bruton, Dick Spring and Proinsias De Rossa to go to the country.

And the sniper's shot that silenced the young smiling Stephen Restorick in Bessbrook, and might have killed Lorraine McElroy as well, will echo and re-echo long after their names have faded from our screens.

For not only did that bullet threaten the edgy peace in Northern Ireland, it was a reminder of the link between paramilitary activity and organised crime which from time to time invades our more comfortable lives "Down Here".

As Sean MacReamoinn, the editor of Crime, Society and Conscience, just published by the Columba Press, reminded Vincent Browne the other night, "we have for the first time the professional killer - the gun for hire."

We also have for the first time the choice of crime as an issue, as FF proclaims from the hoardings: "We'll make sure crime doesn't pay. And criminals do.

MacReamoinn notes that another slogan "Hard on crime and the causes of crime" hasn't been taken up by the parties here.

The causes and consequences of crime, however, are the theme of Donald Taylor Black's The Joy, an RTE series which is a model of public service broadcasting.

It allows the governor of "Mountjoy Prison, John Lonergan, and his colleagues to remind viewers that the prisons have more than individuals - they have whole families in custody.

The governors can tell the areas that turn out prisoners ash surely as others turn out professionals. But their funds are low and their facilities inadequate, and their burden grows. "We've lost a whole generation," said one. And the prisoners tell the same story.

You won't hear much of this during the election, certainly not from the "hard on crime, hard on criminals" brigade or their supporters in the media.

Nora Owen's message from Templemore on Thursday - that the crime graph is falling for the first time since 1989 - is as unlikely to be cheered as her account of drugs seized, or Operation Dochas.

Nora Owen has been picking up the pieces left by decades of neglect, but her tenure is being judged as if she'd held office for a dozen years or more. As if the responsibility for crime lay with Justice alone.

It will certainly be one of the main election issues. Almost one quarter of those questioned in the latest Irish Times/MRBI poll said so.

They placed it second to unemployment (63 per cent) and ahead of income tax (16 per cent) and Northern Ireland (10 per cent).

The list of election issues was compiled without prompting, but more direct questions threw up interesting results and variations.

For instance, when interviewees were asked if they thought the incidence of crime was increasing, decreasing or remained unchanged, 86 per cent said they thought it was increasing.

And there were few exceptions to the national average in the many categories - of age, class, region and political affiliation - into which the sample was broken down.

But when they were asked if they, a relative or friend had been a victim of crime during the past 12 months, little more than one-third said they had; almost two-thirds that they hadn't.

The number of those who said they had been - or knew a victim of crime was highest in Dublin (53 per cent), in urban areas generally (47 per cent) and among the middle classes (50 per cent).

It was lowest in rural areas (20 per cent) and among those over 65 (22 per cent); lowest of all among small farmers (3 per, cent).

TO say that much has been made of crime in the counties west of the Shannon would be an understatement. For much of last year, the media were full of it.

And among those who believed crime was increasing, the people of Connacht-Ulster, the counties west of the Shannon, were ahead of the rest: 92 per cent.

But how many in Connacht-Ulster had had personal experience of crime? Or had a friend or relative who was a victim during the past year? The answer is 16 per cent, between one-fifth and one-sixth of those who believe that crime is increasing.

And how do people believe the gardai are coping? The interviewees were evenly divided - 30 per cent either way between those who thought things were better than before and those who believed they were worse. Little more than one-third thought there had been no change.

The overall impression is not quite as the Minister's critics or the media suggest. The figures for Dublin and urban areas generally bear out suspicions of serious levels of criminal activity.

But the campaigns mounted by politicians and commentators in relation to rural areas are exaggerated. And many are fearful of crime though it is unlikely to touch them.