Madam, – The Labour leader Eamon Gilmore (Home News, September 17th) has said that his party intends “to stand 65 candidates in the general election. That is sufficient to make Labour the largest party in the next Dáil and to lead the next government.” He continued: “If we won 65 seats, that leaves 100 for everybody else and it would make Labour the largest party in the Dáil.” Unfortunately Mr Gilmore’s sums do not add up.
At no election since the Dáil has existed in its present form would 65 seats have made any party the largest. (The lowest number of seats to have achieved this distinction was the tally of 68 seats won by Fianna Fáil in 1992.) Additionally, Mr Gilmore’s calculations are based on the rather outlandish assumption that 100 per cent of Labour candidates will be elected – a result which has never been achieved by a party in an Irish election and, to my knowledge, has never been achieved by any party in any free democracy.
While it is understandable that Mr Gilmore should be seen to talk up his party’s chances, there is a very fine line between optimism and arrogance. Like so many of his predecessors, Mr Gilmore seems destined to take the voters for granted and lead his party to yet another electoral disappointment. – Yours, etc,