ANALYSIS:Labour's future may look rosy but mopping up Fianna Fáil seats could prove harder than the polls indicate, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
THE LABOUR Party will celebrate its centenary the year after next and nothing would be a better hundredth birthday present than becoming the biggest party in the Dáil by the time the anniversary comes around. Even if the party falls short of its wildest dreams, it has every chance of coming out of the next election with the best result in its history.
Eamon Gilmore is easily the most popular party leader at present and, given Labour’s current standing in the polls, he should comfortably exceed Labour’s previous best result of 33 seats under Dick Spring in 1992.
Breaking through the 40-seat barrier in the next Dáil would be of huge psychological as well as practical benefit to the party. Ever since Eamon de Valera issued the injunction “Labour must wait” back in 1918, the party has struggled along in third or sometimes fourth place behind the two big parties in the Dáil who trace their roots back to the original Sinn Féin.
Back in the 1960s the political scientist and broadcaster Brian Farrell described Irish politics as a 2½ party system with Labour in the unenviable position of being the half party. While it came close to breaking out of that straight jacket in 1992 the party has fallen back to its traditional role since then.
However, it would be a mistake to underestimate the role that Labour has played in Irish politics throughout its history. By defying both wings of Sinn Féin and contesting the 1922 election at the start of the Civil War, it gave legitimacy to the Anglo Irish Treaty and the Free State. By playing the role of the main opposition party in the Dáil until republican slow learners caught up in 1927 it helped shape the institutions of independent Ireland.
Labour was involved in coalition governments in the 1940, 50s, 70s, 80s and 90s and contributed significantly to the modernisation of Irish society and the creation of many of the features of the State which we now take for granted, including the social welfare system, public housing, employment protection and liberal social legislation.
The party’s problem has been that left wing critics have denigrated its achievements as not going nearly far enough, while its mainstream political opponents have naturally refused to give it credit for anything. Paradoxically one of the few people to suggest that Labour has exercised considerable influence on government policy over a number of decades was the former Progressive Democrat leader Michael McDowell, although he didn’t intend it as a compliment.
The challenge ahead for Labour is not simply to turn its rising popularity into a great many new seats but what to do with that extra leverage when it takes over the reins of power in a coalition government.
On the practical electoral side of the equation, Gilmore has learned the lesson of 1992 when the party did not run enough candidates to capitalise on the Spring tide. Moves have already begun to ensure that next time around the party will have enough candidates in the field to turn the extra votes into seats. That has involved running mates for sitting TDs, most of them good performers in last year’s local elections. The party has also gone out and hoovered up former independents like Dr Gerry Cowley in Mayo, councillor John Kelly in Roscommon and former Fine Gael candidate, councillor Jimmy Harte in Donegal.
The State will be in uncharted electoral territory at the next election with three parties of roughly equal strength slugging it out for top position. Having enough candidates in place is just one part of the electoral jigsaw.
Even if the opinion polls give Labour, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil a roughly similar percentage of the vote, the two bigger Dáil parties will have far more incumbent TDs. That will give them a big advantage in terms of translating support into seats. The two big parties also have the advantage of having an organisation in almost every parish to get their vote out.
Labour should be in a great position to mop up Fianna Fáil votes and seats but it may not be as easy as some of the polls appear to indicate.
For instance, before the local elections the last Irish Times poll of the campaign gave Labour 20 per cent but it actually achieved 14.5 per cent. By contrast the poll gave Fianna Fáil 20 per cent and it got 25 per cent while Fine Gael got 33 per cent in the poll and almost precisely that figure in the election.
Still, given what has happened since the summer of 2009, Fianna Fáil will struggle to avoid third place, never mind second, in a three way race.
The public sector vote is one obvious target for Labour. In the past Fianna Fáil always got a large slice of it, but after the pay cuts of the past year there is obvious disillusionment with the traditional party of government and a huge opportunity for Labour to pick up significant extra support.
Gilmore’s status as the most popular party leader will be a huge advantage in the campaign. Projecting him as the alternative taoiseach will undoubtedly boost the party’s vote, although precisely to what extent only time will tell. If Labour does become the biggest party then there will be no argument about who should be taoiseach in the next Dáil.
If Fine Gael emerges as the biggest party then the argument for Kenny will be very strong. Either way the relative strength of the parties in the Dáil will dictate not just the allocation of ministerial portfolios but, far more crucially, the approach of that government to the mammoth task of repairing the country.
Labour’s problem is that it is on the cusp of power when the country is broke. During most of its previous periods in office the party has had to deal with a downturn after the departure of Fianna Fáil from office. This led to rapid disillusionment among voters who identified Labour with the problems not of its own making and the party has never managed to win a second term.
Next time around, the problems will be on a far greater scale than ever before but Labour and Fine Gael will have the advantage that there will be no confusion among the electorate about who caused the problem. They will, however, be expected to come up with workable solutions and won’t have a lot of time to do it.
Labour needs to be honest with the voters and avoid making unrealistic promises during the election campaign.
If it does that and is seen to govern fairly and responsibly, Labour could turn a great leap forward in the next election into something more permanent.
NUMBER OF TDs IN PARLIAMENTARY PARTY
20
PERCENTAGE OF VOTE IN 2007 GENERAL ELECTION
10%
PERCENTAGE OF VOTE IN 2009 LOCAL ELECTIONS
14.5%
PERCENTAGE OF VOTE IN JUNE 2010 IRISH TIMES POLL
32%