Iraq endgame looms

"If I did not think our mission was vital to America's security, I'd bring our troops home tomorrow

"If I did not think our mission was vital to America's security, I'd bring our troops home tomorrow." President Bush's blunt statement about his Iraq policy yesterday candidly acknowledged the huge and mounting problems it faces.

The endgame is approaching for the international military coalition led by the United States in Iraq. Military failures, political indecision and appalling levels of violence and casualties are daily compounding each other. Mr Bush is more ready to admit this as the US midterm elections loom in two weeks' time. He accepts the parallel with the 1968 Tet offensive in Vietnam. He no longer uses the phrase "stay the course", preferring to emphasise the need for tactical flexibility as US enemies change their strategies. "Complete the mission" and "Don't leave before the job is done" are the new slogans.

A definite shift of attitude is involved. Mr Bush resists deadlines for withdrawal from Iraq as a recipe for defeat; but he talks openly of timelines for the Iraqi government to take over military tasks and assume political responsibilities. Yesterday he repeated that this was a new government, only recently elected, which he would not push into premature action.

Nevertheless, the drumbeat of ultimata from the most senior US military and diplomatic officials over recent days tells its own story. Mr Bush yesterday freely admitted the mistakes which have been made in Iraq, including the failure to find weapons of mass destruction, while stressing plans to bolster the capacity of the Iraqi military to deal with the insurgency.

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His baseline is clear, however difficult it is to achieve. "If we do not defeat the terrorists or extremists in Iraq, they will gain access to vast oil reserves and use Iraq as a base to overthrow moderate governments across the broader Middle East. They will launch new attacks on America from this new safe haven. They will pursue their goal of a radical Islamic empire that stretches from Spain to Indonesia." These threats and goals are intended to rally the American public at a time when support for the war is rapidly ebbing and becoming a key factor in the midterm elections.

Mr Bush referred yesterday to the cross-party Iraq study group led by James Baker, his long-standing family consiglieri, and the veteran Democrat Lee Hamilton. It is widely expected that their report will provide a rationale for a phased US withdrawal following the elections. It will probably involve redeploying to neighbouring states in an attempt to contain the regional damage arising from the final conflict for power in Iraq.